UNICEF and its Challenges
UNICEF is a global non-profit organization that collaborates with partners to promote children's rights in vulnerable settings. The group works in 190 countries and focuses on topics such as HIV/AIDS, violence, and child abuse (UNICEF, 2016). As a result, in order to carry out its purpose, it is exposed to a wide range of possibilities and risks. Economic factors, societal trends, and political changes all have a direct impact on its functioning (Ramirez & Selin, 2014). Internal considerations, such as the organization's employees and resources, have a considerable impact on identifying the possibilities and challenges that UNICEF faces. It is on these bases that this write-up examines the strategy that is useful in identifying key issues and trends that pose opportunities and threats to the UNICEF.
The Leadership Process
According to Ogilvy (2015), leadership process should incorporate multiple alternate futures in their decisions. It implies that scenario planning is an ideal structure way through which UNICEF can identify issues that create opportunities or pose threats to its operations (The Economist, 2008). The process of scenario planning involves six stages that are prepared, tracking, analyzing, imaging, deciding, and acting (Pastor, 2009). In the initial stage, UNICEF scenario planning team will choose the specific areas in the external and internal environment to consider in future based on the anticipated timelines that are the next five years. Amer et al., (2012), pointed that exploring the future decisions is necessary for quality outcomes when using scenario planning method. In the case of UNICEF, several factors such as demographic variations, policy changes, and resource bases are key concerns.
Tracking and Analysis
Next, the organization undertakes tracking process which involves the use of different methods such as executive panels, media watch, and extended range data among others. For instance, Cohen (2012) demonstrated the likely policy changes that resulted in budget sequestration in the United States and its consequences for the nonprofit organizations. The analysis and imaging stages involve linking the identified strengths and creating a picture of the intended future respectively. In the case of tax reform, the UNICEF planning team should establish other sources of finance that will aid its operations when the population increases especially in urban areas. It is at the decision stage that UNICEF will consider the existing threats and opportunities in designing the strategies required in response to future eventualities. Amer et al., (2012) pointed out that the decision process should involve both predictable aspects like demographic changes and qualitative factors such as financial conditions. The final stage that is acting is whereby the organizational leadership takes necessary steps towards an anticipated future.
Opportunities and Threats
Notably, scenario planning process as explained above exposes specific opportunities and threats to the survivability of UNICEF regarding future operations. Instances of population increase following the current trends imply that there will be several children exposed to social evils such as poverty, violence as well as exploitation. In pursuit of its purpose, such changes will create an opportunity for UNICEF to execute its core mandate (UNICEF, 2016). However, the increased demand is accompanied by the need for more finances. Meanwhile, financial policy reforms especially those seeking budget cuts are a threat to the organization which mainly depend on government grants to support its activities (Cook et al., 2014). Therefore, scenario planning is vital in meeting such future challenges with appropriate strategies.
Conclusion
The external and internal forces create changes that are unpredictable and pose threats to the operations of the organization. They also create opportunities that can be explored in the future. Scenario planning is a leadership strategy that majorly involves stages such preparation, tracking, analyzing, imaging, deciding, and acting. It provides an opportunity for leaders in organizations especially UNICEF, to explore future opportunities and avoid or reduces threats.
References
Amer, M., Daim, T. U., & Jetter, A. (2013). A review of scenario planning. Futures, 46, 23-40.
Cohen, R. (2012). The non-profit sector's policy challenges in the year ahead. Retrieved on 10th September, 2017 https://nonprofitquarterly.org/2012/10/18/the-nonprofit-sectors-policy-challenges-in-the-year-ahead/
Cook, C. N., Inayatullah, S., Burgman, M. A., Sutherland, W. J., & Wintle, B. A. (2014). Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 29(9), 531-541.
Oglivy, J. (2015). Scenario planning and strategic forecasting. Retrieved on 10th September, 2017 https://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/01/08/scenario-planning-and-strategic-forecasting/#68eddca3411a
Pastor, F. (2009). Exploring scenario planning processes: Differences and similarities. Retrieved on 10th September, 2017 http://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=1365715&fileOId=1365716
Ramírez, R., & Selin, C. (2014). Plausibility and probability in scenario planning. Foresight, 16(1), 54-74.
The Economist, (2008). Scenario planning. Retrieved on 10th September, 2017 http://www.economist.com/node/12000755
UNICEF, (2016). About UNICEF. Retrieved on 10th September, 2017 https://www.unicef.org/about-us
