Donald Trump's Presidential Victory
Donald Trump’s presidential victory surprised many Americans and others around the world because most people did not anticipate him to win because of his controversial economic and foreign policies. Most people feel that the Trump Administration will harm the US economy and its relations with foreign countries, while some believe the opposite (Procknow, 2017).
Trump's Economic Policy
Trump’s economic policy calls for the reduction of taxes (both personal and corporate), the reduction of trade regulations, and increased investment on infrastructure and defense (Rockman, 2016). Such a measure might set off a massive cycle of greater GDP growth, increasing corporate profits. However, a great concern also exists regarding the potential adverse impacts of the Tramp Administration’s planned restrictions on trade and immigration (Lee, 2016).
Emergence of the Trump's Administration
On the other hand, the emergence of the Trump’s Administration has resulted in one of the most spectacular political upset in the modern era. That is because, America, unlike in the past, appears divided over various significant foreign policy aspects, a situation which could affect U.S relation with the rest of the world in different ways (Rushton & Kett, 2016). This paper presents the likely impacts of the New Administration on the U.S economy, as well as its relations with other nations.
Impact of the New Administration on U.S Economy
The new administration of the U.S government is headed by a Republican President, Donald Trump, and the Republican Party has always championed for relaxing debt limits and boosting public spending, especially during the reign of Presidents George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan (Rockman, 2016). Trump is, therefore, likely to implement the Keynesian Fiscal Stimulus which President Obama proposed but failed to deliver. With the implementation of the Keynesian Fiscal Stimulus, economic growth and inflation will increase simultaneously since the US economy is currently running into the limits of full employment and the resulting economic growth will push the inflation higher (Rockman, 2016).
Additionally, while disagreements over environmental and energy laws may dominate the Trump Administration’s headlines, the likely economic impact will emerge from the proposed deregulation, such as reversing bank regulations (Koch, 2017). Following Trump Administration’s move to encourage banks to loosen their lending standards, particularly for the middle-income households, an increase in debt-financed consumption and residential construction is likely to enhance the country’s economic growth. However, excessive deregulation could lead to a re-occurrence of the country’s 2007 financial crisis (Koch, 2017).
With Trump Administration, various tax reforms such as multinational companies’ amnesty that ban foreign profits are likely to become laws (Procknow, 2017). The hegemony of Republican Administration will, therefore, allow quick agreement regarding various tax cuts, mainly financed by higher public borrowing as opposed to facing down the resistance by special interest lobbies against the elimination of loopholes and exemptions. As a result, such tax reforms will create massive budget deficits, which will, in turn, stimulate more growth (Procknow, 2017).
On the other hand, the enactment of the large tax cuts and various laws relating to boosting public spending is likely to create an economic threat to the U.S economy (Rushton & Kett, 2016). That is because the U.S economy is almost reaching full employment and boosting the country’s public spending will only accelerate inflation and higher interest rates (Rushton & Kett, 2017). Besides, due to the possibility of more trade protectionism and actions to eliminate immigrant workers, the long-term interest rates and increase in inflation could occur dramatically, thereby disrupting the financial markets and making inflation accelerate (Rushton & Kett, 2016).
The travel restrictions that Trump Administration plans to put on immigrants from selected Muslim countries is likely to impact the U.S economy adversely (Procknow, 2017). The cruel and ill-conceived restrictions on immigrants from various Muslim-dominated countries are likely to spark a trade war that could cripple the U.S economy in several ways (Procknow, 2017). Most large U.S corporations that participate in the global marketplace derive a huge share of their profits overseas and the restriction of business partners from moving to and from the United States will, therefore, significantly hurt the productivity of most U.S corporations (Procknow, 2017).
Additionally, the U.S economy is likely to suffer from the retaliation factor. That is because any nation subject to trade or immigration restriction could make it difficult for various U.S business operations (Rockman, 2016). They may decide to increase import taxes on U.S goods and even prevent U.S nationals from entering into their countries. Besides, the citizens of the restricted countries may choose to boycott various U.S-based companies’ products and services, thereby stagnating the U.S economy (Rockman, 2016).
The plan of the near-zero interest rate that forms part of the Trump Administration’s agenda is likely to hurt the U.S economy. The economy of the U.S is currently growing at a faster rate than expected, with rising long-term interest rates, and therefore an excessive strengthening of the dollar is likely to cause a critical risk to the country’s economy (Lee, 2016). Despite being at an overvalued state, further strengthening of the dollar could move it into a self-reinforcing upward spiral like it happened in the late 1990s and the early 1980s following the accumulation of the dollar debts in the emerging markets (Lee, 2016).
Impact of the New Administration on U.S Relations with Other Nations
Despite Trump Administration's unpredictable stand in the context of hostile negotiations and conflicts, the position of the United States usually forms a key determinant for various third parties even in conflicts and negotiations where the United States has no direct involvement (Lee, 2016). The new Trump Administration, therefore, raises great concerns regarding how he will deal with various conflicts and crises such as the South China Sea tensions, conflict in Ukraine, the war in Syria, the North Korean provocations, and even the war against terrorism (Lee, 2016).
Internationally, the current Trump Administration is likely to lean more towards bilateral deals reliant on a quid-pro-quo rationale than leaning towards multilateralism. In the event of crises, such a move may result in short-term reliefs (Rushman & Kett, 2016). For example, it would be conceivable for the United States to come to an agreement with Russia regarding how to approach the Syrian situation. However, various policies that base on quid-pro-quo usually discourage lasting legal commitments and therefore becoming counterproductive for multilateral Administrations in areas such as the environment, trade, sustainability, climate, and arms control (Rushman & Kett, 2016).
Additionally, Trump Administration appears to be ready for questioning American-led alliances, as well as accepting the division of the world into various spheres of influence, a rare proposal not experienced by many since the 1945 Yalta Conference (Procknow, 2017). Such a move would imply a reduced intervention by America in other sections of the world. Besides, the move would lower the influence of America on various countries that, for a long time, have avoided getting involved in dangerous unilateral actions due to U.S security assurance. Ultimately, potential troublemakers will try to test the stability of the United States, a situation that could worsen the relation between U.S and such countries (Procknow, 2017).
If Trump Administration accomplishes its campaign promises, there is likely to be a huge withdrawal from various institutions that the U.S participated in creating in the past, on which its legitimacy and power rest (Lee, 2016). Going by various statements made during Trump’s campaign, the likelihood of Trump leading the U.S in withdrawing from various critical organizations such as NATO and the World Trade Organization cannot be ruled out. Other likely actions by the Trump Administration which could worsen U.S relation with other countries include revocation of the Iran nuclear deal as well as the Paris climate change agreement (Lee, 2016).
Conclusion
The new U.S Administration lead by President Donald Trump is likely to have a broad range of positive and adverse impacts on the country’s economy as well as its relation with other world nations. The new Trump Administration, therefore, raises several questions about the likely changes that could negatively affect the position of the U.S in the world, both in the context of economic growth and international relations. However, the new Administration has a likelihood of implementing various laws that would enhance U.S economic growth, as well as strengthen various ties between the United States and other world countries.
References
Koch, N. (2017). Orientalizing authoritarianism: Narrating US exceptionalism in popular reactions to the Trump election and presidency. Political Geography. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.03.001
Lee, H. (2016). Donald Trump and American Hegemony. Peace Studies, 24(2), 205. http://dx.doi.org/10.21051/ps.2016.10.24.2.205
Procknow, G. (2017). Trump, proto-presidency, and the rise of sane supremacy. Disability & Society, 1-5. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09687599.2017.1311071
Rockman, B. (2016). The Trump Presidency – What does it mean?. Zeitschrift Für Staats- Und Europawissenschaften, 14(4), 437-447. http://dx.doi.org/10.5771/1610-7780-2016-4-437
Rushton, S., & Kett, M. (2016). The Trump Presidency – what future for global health and armed conflict?. Medicine, Conflict And Survival, 32(4), 253-254. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13623699.2016.1297920
