The article, Saying Sayonara to the Farm: Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Farm Exits in Japan
The article, Saying Sayonara to the Farm: Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Farm Exits in Japan, addresses the issue of farm exit due to off-farm opportunities of employment. Agriculture has been frustrated recently by the overwhelming rural-urban migration causing many farms to close down. Most people especially the working class prefer off-farm work, and this has caused the decline of many farms (Ramsey, Ghosh, and Sonoda, 2018, p.2).
Entry and Exit in the Agricultural Sector
Entry and exit in the agricultural sector have continued to create friction in the labor, land, and capital markets hence deterring productivity enhancement. In Japan, for instance, the exit level has exceeded the entry-level resulting in vast farmland being abandoned. This paper seeks to determine the extent and effects of the exit using the Bayesian hierarchical model.
Motivation for the Study
The author is motivated to study the topic by the raging increase in the level of farm exit. Exits from farming leave large and productive pieces of agricultural land bare. Despite the enticing opportunities that lure the agrarian class to quit farming, a nation would not survive without food. There is, therefore, a great need to mitigate the rural-urban migration that has continuously frustrated agriculture to ensure food security (Ramsey, Ghosh, and Sonoda, 2018, p.3). The authors demonstrate the current state of farming and the need to address the issues regarding entry and exit in the business. The paper describes the factors that have continually contributed to the witnessed exits. The writers assert that off-farm income has proven to be more stable therefore it is justifiable for farmers to seek a livelihood elsewhere. Off-farm work also reduces expenses always associated with the agricultural sector making it easier to invest in other business than in farming. Thus, the article defends the research topic sufficiently by demonstrating the need to act on the farm exit problem to protect agriculture.
Research Questions
In the publication, there are several research questions that the authors strive to answer. Firstly, they seek to establish the variation present in farm exit rates. They are interested to know whether the heterogeneous off-farm opportunities leads to part-time farming and eventual exit. Most economists have assumed that it is easy to run farming along with other off-farm businesses, but this might not be the case always. Most part-time farmers end up ditching farming, and therefore it is vital to establish the relationship between the heterogeneous opportunities outside the farm and exit rate. Secondly, the paper intends to explore the predictive capability of two arithmetical approaches of farm exit. It is important to develop accurate predicting models to design appropriate policies that will help counter the problem in the future. In the past, most studies embraced linear models, but there is a need to diversify the techniques to promote proper planning (Ramsey, Ghosh, and Sonoda, 2018, p.4). Thirdly, the paper also seeks to establish the consequences of off-farm labor on the exits witnessed from farming. It is critical that the factors that entice people to quit farming be scrutinized to facilitate effective planning of countermeasures. The questions are essential since they point to the causes of the problem making it easier to solve.
Methodology
Regarding methodology, the study used the Bayesian hierarchical models where count data and information from different levels of analysis were integrated. The data collected is therefore comprehensive and reliable since it is obtained from household and aggregated levels. Household datasets are often collected around small geographical regions and lower level data about individual farms. The hierarchical model assisted the researchers to integrate group data with personal information to come up with accurate national results. In this case, the model utilized two levels of data including the town and prefecture levels. The source of this information was the Agricultural census of Japan done by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF) (Ramsey, Ghosh and Sonoda, 2018, p.5). The approach was therefore effective and assisted the authors to answer the questions adequately.
Results
The results showed that the rate of exit from farming is determined by the availability of better-paying opportunities off the farm. They also articulated that plantations with farm households with little or no sales have higher exits than those whose farms are doing well. Instances where off-farm opportunities earned lower than the farm recorded few exits. Lower exits levels were discovered for households where farming is used to supplement the family head's off-farm income. In such cases, the spouses and children work on the farm, and at times the income may exceed that of the head. More exits are observed where farming is the primary source of income. Such farmers leave when better opportunities arise or when prevalent challenges arise in agriculture (Ramsey, Ghosh and Sonoda, 2018, p.11). The results support that the most significant factor that facilitates exit is the availability of off-farm opportunities. The authors are therefore able to reflect the results of the study clearly in the report making it easy to understand the situation. The findings of this article are hence convincing enough that the issue of exit from farming is an imminent threat to agriculture in Japan.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the paper states that exits have caused the falling of agriculture in Japan for the last three decades, the reduction of farming households, and the abandoning of agricultural land. As a result, the Japanese lawmakers have to establish policies that promote structural change, the establishment of commercial farms, and land consolidation. The article creates a better perception of the challenges that face Japanese farming and therefore creating better approaches for allowing these issues to be solved. The report has demonstrated the complex relationship between off-farm opportunities and exit. Hence, suggesting the need to make farming more lucrative by reducing frustrations that lead to its abandonment. The article is logically constructed and organized. However several changes would be prepared to make it even more clear and compelling. The authors could have adopted the use of chapters to make the work more presentable. Also, clear subtopics, such as methodology and literature review should have been used. They should have also listed the research questions, hypothesis, method, and study site more clearly. Nonetheless, the article was able to communicate the project efficiently.
Reference
Ramsey, A., Ghosh, S. and Sonoda, T., 2018. Saying Sayonara to the Farm: Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Farm Exits in Japan. Journal of Agricultural Economics. doi: 10.1111/1477-9552.12290
