Deterrence, prediction, and mitigation of ISIS terrorism

Addressing National Security Concerns

Because of the high risk and consequences of ISIS terrorism, the United States has the right to address its national security concerns. Terrorism forensic science allows for the classification of ISIS terrorists based on their actions and intentions. Terrorism forensic-based attribution serves two purposes: it aids in the prevention of ISIS infiltration by enabling deterrence, and it allows for post-attack response options if deterrence fails. The deterrence provided by attribution ability alone is merely limited in scope, but it fills a critical gap in the United States' strategy for preventing ISIS terrorism in the country. The country's attribution capability should be adequately developed by focusing on the unilateral program requirements while enduring domestic political will to elevate and retain the country's attribution capacity (Ganor, 2015).

Predicting Waves of Terrorism

Rapoport's "Four Waves of Modern Terrorism Theory" can be used to predict the wave of terrorism in the United States (Campion, 2015). Through his theory, Rapoport cautions that the terrorists often invent the novel way to conduct their activities and argues that even when the fourth wave imitates the model of the proceeding waves, an inspiration for the new type of terror attack is likely to emerge without expectation as the previous attack (Kaplan, 2010). The wave system can be used in the prediction of terrorism as it maps the history of modern terrorism and how this can be used to anticipate the future terrorism. Rapoport's ideologies are derived from anti-colonialism, anarchism, religious fundamentalism, and socialism. The wave theory design is a unique approach to examine the current history of non-state violent actors and put their actions in the general context and shifts emphasis away from the conventional models of conflict between state-based tensions and nations (Campion, 2015). Every wave is seen as a metaphor that shows connectivity between internal terrorist groups of a given period and is defined using three characteristics: international character, the cycle of events is a detailed timeline revealing the expansion and contraction, and the powerful energy that drives the group like the ISIS group. The ISIS group starts by directing most of its ruthless efforts against the US agencies overseas, for example, the bombing of its embassies abroad, then the wave shifts to the US internal agencies like Pentagon attack. Based on the series of the waves, it is very easy to time the occurrence of terrorism in the United States (Kaplan, 2010).

Response to ISIS Infiltration and Threat

Since terrorism is a violation of local, state, and federal law, the response to the ISIS infiltration and threat must include state and federal response agencies. The pre-incident preparedness and terrorist response include efforts to define the risk, identify the terrorist groups, and prevent the terrorist attack. The post-incident management actions include various efforts to resolve the terrorism incident, carrying an investigation, collecting evidence, and apprehend the individuals culpable to the crime (Joslyn & Haider&Markel, 2007). The Police Departments and the Sheriff's Office have the lead with the role in local terrorist incident response and have to coordinate their efforts with the federal and state law enforcement agencies effectively. The Texas Division of Emergency Management helps is a leading state agency for terrorism response and recovery functions. The State Operations Center, the Emergency Management Council, and the Disaster Districts have the duty to coordinate the state resources in support of the local terrorism response and recovery functions (Hambridge, Howitt & Giles, 2017).

Managing Public Outrage, Attribution, and Post-Incident Response

If the ISIS group has invaded the borders of the nation, it is imperative first to maintain the public outrage. Instilling fear is the main tactic of terrorists. Improvised devices, propaganda, and suicide bombings are all the means to that end. Fear drives the public to cede their liberties to those who promise safety. It is imperative to know that occasional acts of terrorism are part of life and should be considered as any other form of accidents though should be taken with caution. Through normalizing and contextualizing the sensation, we can reduce the power of terrorism. The public must be sensitized on this perception to avoid extreme panic during the times of ISIS attacks. Managing the public's view of fear and the dangers caused by terrorism is just the critical measure taken to safeguard against the actual attack itself (Joslyn & Haider&Markel, 2007).

The Nexus of ISIS Terrorism

The nexus of ISIS terrorism is today's greatest security threat. This can be attributed to the increase of the Islamic groups and lack of proper structures to address this gravid issue. The importance of keeping the fissile materials out of the hands of this group is currently accepted. The difficulty of doing so is due to lack of appreciation for the technical issues, hampering the ability to build the comprehensive safeguard system, and prevent ISIS attack (Zech & Kelly, 2015).

Post-Incident Response Operations

The post-incident of ISIS terrorism conforms to the emergency response operations that are under the NIMS, a system that employs two levels of incident management systems. This also entails preparedness and recovery options. The structures include the Incident Command System (ICS) and Multi-agency Coordination System. The ICS includes the core set concepts, principles, and terminologies that apply to single and multiple incidents regardless of the scope (Hambridge, Howitt & Giles, 2017). The Multi-agency Coordination System integrates the combination of equipment, facilities, procedures, personnel, and communications into the common framework that allows for the coordination and support of incident management. In the event of ISIS attack, the Multi-agency Coordination System is advisable. Central to the system is the Emergency Operation Center (EOC) that is the nucleus of all the coordination of the resources and information. The Incident Commander manages and directs the on-scene from the ICP. The EOC mobilizes and deploys resources that are required for the use of the Incident Commander, coordinate the outside resources, and all the resources to support the on-scene operations (Hagan, 2016). With regards to preparedness, the local agency for deterring, preventing, and responding to the attack is the local Police Department or the Sheriff's Office. The response and recovery activities done to deal with the effects of terrorism are undertaken in critically the same manner as the intervention and recovery activities for other disasters and emergencies. The Incident Command Post (ICP) is tasked with managing the operation of the incident is localized (Mahadevan, 2016). The ICP administers the emergency operations at the incident site. The commander creates the crime scene boundary that defines the crime scene. The leader draws the scene that may also be referred to as the red zone or the working point. The emergency personnel responding to the terrorist attack must be protected from various hazards that the terrorist may produce. The emergency personnel must take the shortest time in the risk area. The workers must use different techniques like the rapid entries to rotate staff and execute reconnaissance within the area. The trained personnel must reduce the distance between the emergency area and the public, and if the attack is chemical, radiological, or explosive, the emergency team must isolate and issue a protective distance. The team utilizes appropriate shielding to address various hazards. The shielding is done for both the affected public and the personnel in charge (Hagan, 2016).


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terrorism (Doctoral dissertation, James Cook University).

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Hagan, R. F. (2016). Filling Terrorism Gaps: VEOs, Evaluating Databases and Applying Risk

Terrain Modeling to Terrorism (No. PNNL–25727). Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest

National Lab.

Hambridge, N. B., Howitt, A. M., & Giles, D. W. (2017). Coordination in Crises:

Implementation of the National Incident Management System by Surface Transportation

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Kaplan, J. (2010). Terrorist groups and the new tribalism: Terrorism’s fifth wave. London, UK:


Mahadevan, P. (2016). Urban Counterterrorist Sieges. Security Studies, 10(2), 33-56.

Zech, S., & Kelly, Z. (2015). Off with their heads: the Islamic State and civilian beheadings.

Journal of Terrorism Research, 6(2).

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