The Brexit Referendum: A Close Vote with Significant Consequences
The United Kingdom held a referendum on its membership in the European Union on June 23, 2016. The poll tried to determine whether the citizens of the United Kingdom would depart or remain a member of the European Union (E.U.). This election was attended by representatives from each of the United Kingdom's four nations: England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. A review of the Brexit Referendum outcome indicates that the vote was close, with just a slim margin dividing those who voted to remain from those who voted to withdraw.
High Voter Turnout and Geographical Split
Brexit would have a variety of consequences for Britain's ties with the United States and Europe. In comparison with other general elections in recent years, the 2016 referendum had one of the biggest turnouts of voters. It is the second after the 2014 Scotland referendum of independence that had an 84.59% voter turnout. The Brexit had a 72% turnout with more than thirty-three million voters taking part. 51.9% of the electorate, seventeen million votes, backed the exit from the European Union (Singh, 2016). On the other hand, sixteen million voters who represented 48.1% of the votes polled for a Remain in the union. The Brexit win only had a margin of 3.8%. That reflects a tight race when compared to the 1975 referendum when 67% of voters supported the U.K. to be a member of the European Community.
Another interesting point is the variant voting patterns experienced along the geographical boundaries. In the Brexit Referendum, Northern Ireland and Scotland massively voted for a stay in the union. While 63% voters from Ireland were against Brexit, there were 67% voters from Scotland disputing the move. However, the other two nations had a majority voting for Brexit with both of them at 53%. The geographical split is a different case as compared to the 1975 referendum where all the four nations voted for the United Kingdom to stay in the European Economic Community.
Demographic Differences and the Role of Immigration
The demographic differences regarding the voting patterns during this referendum are also worth noting. A study by the British Conservative pollster Lord Ashcroft highlighted that 73% of young people between the age of eighteen and twenty-four years voted against Brexit (Singh, 2016). The same survey indicated that sixty percent of persons above 65 years old cast the ballot in favor of Brexit.
The discussion on immigration was a major reference point during the campaigns before this election got underway. The study by Ashcroft also majored on this topic. The survey interviewed people from different ethnic backgrounds on matters relating to the Brexit. According to Ashcroft, fifty-three percent of the white voters backed the exiting of Britain from the European Union (Singh, 2016). Results from the same survey showed that two-thirds of people from Asian backgrounds and 73% of black voters voted against Brexit (Singh, 2016). That represents the big variance experienced in these polls.
Implications for Trade and International Relations
The Brexit referendum results will affect the relationship between the U.K. and other European nations. After voting to leave, Britain is given a two-year period for agreeing with the European Union on new trade deals and relationships as a non-member of the community (Milmo, 2016). The negotiations will cover the framework for international commerce and customs procedures for the U.K. Consider; there are some privileges that Britain only enjoys as a member of the European Union. Therefore, an exit would mean new terms have to get in play.
One possibility of what would be the results of Britain’s exit is the imposition of trade barriers. As an EU member, companies in the United Kingdom get to enjoy tariff-free and unregulated trade in some areas with other members of the union (Milmo, 2016). When the negotiations commence, any European nation would be free to post a tariff on U.K. exports coming into their countries. Remember, eight from ten cars made in the United Kingdom have their markets abroad.
The relationship between Europe and Britain after Brexit is also worth studying with the consideration that the largest U.K. trading partner is the European Union. Great Britain would get the freedom of freely trading with firms in different countries across the world. However, it is worth noting that the companies in countries that are EU members can resolve to withdraw transactions with British firms. Such a move would be a major blow to the United Kingdom’s economy since it is not clear how long it would take Britain to establish strong market bases in other areas far from Europe.
Implications for the United States
The impacts of Brexit are expected to spiral far to the United States also. Days before the day of the election, President Obama was quoted saying that the issue was a matter for the Britons, yet the United States has deep interests in it since it affects the country’s prospects as well (Browne, 2016). Numerous U.S. officials including the State Department Spokesperson, John Kirby, noted that no matter the outcome of the referendum the special relationship between the U.K. and the United States would not change.
Most parties may wish for a continued tight relationship between these two powerful nations. However, experts argue that the implications that come along with Brexit might ill the tie between the two. For instance, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) gave a report warning of the harm the U.K. economy should expect. The report went further to clarify that if the negative reaction in the market would get significant, economies of major U.K. partners like the United States might be hurt too (Browne, 2016). Remember Britain is ranked seventh among the biggest trading partners for the U.S. Brexit also has a high chance of negatively impacting on the status of the country in the global financial market. According to Janet Yellen, a former Federal Reserve chairwoman, the impact would spiral down to the United States economy (Browne, 2016).
Conclusion
Various factors such as the consequences that would reach America are prone to interfere with the relationship between these two great countries. The wish of the American government to continue having a tight tie with Britain got expressed when Obama’s Administration talked about the possibility of a deal between the two. However, he put some controversy in the issue when he noted that his first priority was to have negotiations with the European Union.
The Brexit Referendum marked another chapter in the history of the United Kingdom. The election was tight as the Leave Team won with a margin of 3.8% of the votes. That is an indicator that both sides had a driving force to have the will. However, the majority will always have their way as democracy dictates. The win of the Brexit saw former British Prime Minister, David Cameron, resign from office. The win is also expected to have some consequences on the relationship between the United Kingdom and Europe as the scramble for trade deals begin. The U.S-U.K. relationship is also expected to face some hurdles.
References
Browne, R. (2016, June 21). Brexit: What does the EU referendum mean for the US? Retrieved from CNN Politics: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/21/politics/what-brexit-means-for-the-united-states/index.html
Milmo, D. (2016, June 26). How will Brexit affect Britain’s trade with Europe? Retrieved from The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/26/how-will-brexit-affect-britains-trade-with-europe
Singh, R. (2016, July 4). Brexit referendum: Voting analysis. Retrieved from The Parliament Magazine: https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/news/brexit-referendum-voting-analysis
