The United States Senate elections will be held on 6th November 2018. Texas has attracted a lot of attention due to a historically uncommon scenario. The incumbent Senator Ted Cruz launched his bid for re-election with a new Texas-branded slogan and a video. However, that is not all. Ted Cruz is facing a capable and well-financed Democrat rival, Beto O’Rourke. This is the first time Cruz is facing a serious Democrat opponent since he rose to Texas’ political popularity. O’Rourke, who is a Representative from El Paso, has shocked some political analysts for raising the largest amount of money that any Democrat who has ever vied for Texas’ Senate seat (Mekelburg and Moritz).
O’Rourke was a punk-rock musician and El Paso City councilman. In the latest fundraiser, Mr. O’Rourke outraised Mr. Cruz by more than 150%. According to Manny Fernandez, a Houston Bureau chief since 2011, Mr. O’Rourke’s bid is a beacon of hope to the people of Texas (Philips). He believes that Texas people consider Mr. Cruz delinked from Texas and politically vulnerable after his failed presidential bid. Besides, Fernandez is of the view that the anger being driven towards President Trump, even in the red state such as Texas, is a red flag to the Republican candidate, Mr. Cruz."They view Mr. Cruz as politically vulnerable and disconnected in Texas after his failed run for president, especially as anger against President Trump rise in red states such as Texas” (Fernandez). Another belief in O’Rourke’s win is hinged on his language and origin. Mr. O’Rourke is an Irish-American representative. He speaks Spanish eloquently and has decided to use his Spanish nickname for Roberto, Beto. The future of Democratic Party is believed to lie in the hand of Beto (Fernandez).
However, there are some setbacks in O’Rourke’s campaign. If O’Rourke unseats Cruz, he will be the first Democrat senator in Texas in 24 years. The last time there was a Democratic Party senator in Texas was in 1994. Historically, he as slim chances changing the trend (Soto). Evidently, Texas has been a red state for all those years. However, Soto disagrees with Senator Jon Cornyn who believes that O’Rourke run is suicidal, “…But is certainly not a ‘suicide mission’ as Texas Senator Jon Cornyn described O’Rourke’s run” (Soto). Unseating Texas senator is one the toughest things in US politics. In fact, Associated Press indicates the Democrat’s 24-year losing streak is the longest in US’ politics (Philips). Besides, considering Texas primaries that took place in March 2018, even with 100% more voters turn out than in 2014, only 1 million Democrats voted. On the other hand, 1.5 million Republicans voted. Cruz notes that he got more than 85% of the votes cast which is approximately 1.3 million votes; being more than double what O’Rourke garnered, “In Texas last night we had a strong turnout for conservatives. I was very gratified to win over 85 percent of the vote, to win 1.3 million votes, which is more than double what my Democratic opponent got” (Cruz via Twitter).
O’Rourke performance in the primary did not reflect the strength of a candidate aspiring to unseat one of the most prominent politicians in Texas. In fact, gave up more than thirty-eight percent of the cast votes to an opponent considered less-known (Philips). To make the matter worse, in the Quinnipiac poll, fifty-three percent of the state’s voters said that they know very little about O’Rourke to identify with him (Philips). Apparently, O’Rourke faces the hard job of introducing himself to the people of Texas. Thus the Democrats voters turn out coupled with popularity issues and issues highlighted above poses a setback to the Democrat.
Many would argue that the primary challenge Cruz faces is Trump. The Republic President, Trump, has been receiving anger and criticism over his leadership style. These criticisms may pose a risk of failure to other Republicans vying across the country. Texas is a red state and history has demonstrated the same (Leslie). Besides, both 2014 elections and the recent primary showed that Republicans voters turn out is higher than that of Democrats. Consequently, O’Rourke has a daunting task of persuading the independents to vote for him. Clearly, Cruz has an advantage over O'Rourke regarding numbers, understanding of the Texas political landscape and experience. History has been unfavorable to Democrats in Texas, and I believe it still will even this time around. It was believed that Wendy Davies would become the first Democratic governor in 20 years, but Democrats lost the seat to the Republican Greg. A similar scenario happened in 2016 when it was almost certain that Hillary Clinton will win Texas in the race to the White House (Fernandez).
Despite stronger financial muscles and use his nativity, I still believe that Beto O’Rourke is not strong enough to unseat Ted Cruz. The place of the Democrats in Texas is not there. Ted Cruz will retain the seat due to his political experience, and most importantly, the redness of Texas.
Works Cited
Fernandez, Manny. "In Texas, Ted Cruz Is Facing an Unusual Challenge: A Formidably Financed Democrat." 3 April 2018. NY Times. 3 May 2018 .
Leslie, Katie. "Why Beto O'Rourke's primary win doesn't bode well for unseating Ted Cruz ." April 2018. Daily News. 4 May 2018 .
Mekelburg, Madlin and John Moritz. "Ted Cruz vs. Beto O'Rourke: Senate showdown set after Texas primary." 7 March 2018. USA Today. 4 May 2018 .
Philips, Amber. "Hang on: Can a Democrat actually win a U.S. Senate race in Texas?" 19 April 2018. Washington Post . 3 May 2018 .
Soto, Victoria DeFrancesco. "Opinion: Can Beto O'Rourke Beat Ted Cruz? Here's How." 6 April 2017. NBC News. 4 May 2018 .
