Meteorological risks are calamities caused by extreme weather, such as drought, rain, snow, wind, excessive heat, and cold (Sun & Wang, 2011, p. 383). Extreme weather is defined as weather that is unpredictable or extraordinary at the extremities of its historical or customary distribution. When the weather exceeds normal standards, it is deemed extreme. Cyclones, hailstorms, droughts, hurricanes, heat waves, and floods induced by excessive rainfall are examples of meteorological disasters (Kanopy 2016, p. 46). The British Isles are host to every type of danger known to man. The UK is located far from the plate margin, but it is subjected to frequent natural hazards for example earthquakes. However, the common examples of hazards experienced in the UK are caused by extreme weather (Bates 2015, p. 18). The most common meteorological hazards in the UK include floods, cold weather, and storms. In the recent past, the intensity and frequency of floods have been on the rise. The 2010 to 2011 cold weather was one of the worst weathers in the history of the United Kingdom. Storms are brought by mid-latitude depressions that originate from the Atlantic Ocean. In addition to the common meteorological hazards, other less obvious weather disasters that are experienced in the UK include extreme coastal erosions, Tornadoes, droughts, and heat waves. Britain experiences over thirty tornadoes every year and droughts have persisted within the last three decades (Greenough & Burkle 2016, p. 381).
The hazards are distributed in geographical patterns, and every part of the country is associated with a specific hazard. The depressions and storms that cause wet and windy weathers are associated with the western and northern parts of the country. The intensity also varies depending on the geographic region. The variation in the occurrence of the meteorological hazards is also affected by the season. Winter is normally characterised by very cold weather and precipitation. Hazards like flooding are also common in specific areas, especially the low lying regions around rivers (Nitoi 2016, p. 40).
Generation of weather warnings for each hazard
There are diverse ways of generating weather warnings for each meteorological hazard for the emergency departments to be well prepared as well as taking the suitable actions to prevent severe effects. In most cases, each hazard has a specific method for generating a warning concerning the probability of its occurrence. Meteorologists working at the Storm Prediction Centre give the weather forecast on a daily basis (Toeglhofer et al. 2012, p. 192). They also give convective outlooks for organised severe thunderstorms expected in the UK depending on the present weather observations as well as forecasting models. Closely monitoring the regions at a higher risk of tornadoes is crucial for early detection of the hazard and to take the most appropriate action. When the forecasters observe that the weather is highly favourable for the occurrence of tornadoes, the forecasters give a severe tornado watch that characteristically lasts for 4 to 6 hours (Bluestein 2013, p. 320). In such situations, the emergency managers, local forecast offices, the general public, and the storm spotters are warned concerning the probability of harsh weather that could cause harm to people and property. The warnings for tornadoes are issued by the local, national weather service forecast department when the weather indicates a high likelihood of the tornado occurrence or when the hazard has been observed or shown by weather radar. It is important for taking proper actions within the affected areas, for instance, advising people within the regions at risk to seek apposite shelter within the shortest time possible (Simmons & Sutter 2011, p. 226). The varied sections involved in weather forecasting work as one team particularly during the spring to examine new weather forecasting models to assess their value on forecasting activities.
The computer forecast models or the numerical prediction models are applied to help weather forecasters determine whether certain conditions will raise the possibility of tornado occurrence (Mauro 2015, p. 261). The models function by calculating what is likely to happen to the atmosphere at specific points over a wide area, from the surface of the earth to the top of the atmosphere. The model uses information gathered from weather balloons around the globe plus satellite measures to predict the most likely occurrence (Eden 2009, p. 66). The ensemble forecasting model is a combination of several models to tell whether there will be a severe weather. The system can as well determine the level of severity and advise people at risk accordingly.
Flooding is a common meteorological hazard in the United Kingdom. Generation of warnings for floods in time is significant to help persons living in affected areas to move to safer zones. Risk and map models and the cat models are used for prediction of floods. The models are relied on to account for the unpredictable and unsteady natural procedures that result in flooding. Model function through creating huge sets of events for probable scenarios in which every development is a year's worth of climate forecasts, and scrutinizes the results using statistical approaches. The sets are generated depending on the changing climatic conditions (Viglione & Rogger 2015, p. 11). The thousands of the scenarios generated are then used to predict probable events that could result in catastrophic flooding events that can be expressed as probabilities. Some models can be used to offer a snapshot of flooding risk depending on a set of assumptions and using as much empirical data as possible (Joffe, Rossetto, & Adams 2013, p. 13). The information generated from the models concerning the possibility of flooding is distributed to the relevant offices to be communicated to the relevant bodies especially the emergency preparedness and the environmental agency to evacuate people from high-risk areas. The information is also used to warn motorists planning to use particular roads that have been mapped to be at risk of floods (De et al. 2004, p. 500).
Weather warnings are presented by the use of different colours that indicate the severity or the likelihood of the meteorological hazard. The areas on the map are colour-coded to show the risk level in various regions. Three warning colours are used to give the warnings; amber, yellow, and red. The warning colours are given depending on the possibility of a specific severe weather occurrence as well as its expected outcome it does happen. A weather impact matrix is used to determine the warning colours (Sharpe 2015, p. 67). A fundamental factor in the assessment of impact is that a similar weather might lead to varied levels of outcomes in dissimilar regions within the United Kingdom. An example includes wind gusts of 60 mph because they may not have any effect in northwest Scotland since strong winds are common in such areas. The same winds might cause destructions in regions where winds with such strength are not common (Morris 2009, p. 85). The impacts of weather hazards are also dependent on the season. The colours correspond to high, medium, and low impacts and then estimate the general warning colour in all impact intensities. The warnings are generated based on the likely impacts of the hazard. The colour amber is used to represent a low likelihood high impact warning, and it is given priority over yellow that stands for high likelihood low impact warning (Biffis & Chavez 2017, p. 1511). Even if the yellow colour shows high likelihood, more attention is paid on the areas with amber colours because there is a low likelihood of the hazard to occur but its occurrence might have momentous impacts in the affected area. For conditions like snow, yellow warnings imply that there is a higher probability of the meteorological hazard to occur, but the impact to the environment and the occupants of that area will not be too much (O'Hare, Sweeney, & Wilby 2005, p. 117). The same applies to yellow warnings for ice. The red colour is used to warn about a high possibility of a meteorological hazard, and the impacts might also be momentous (Whiting 2009, p. 80).
Communication of weather warnings
Warnings are the priority in the weather forecast department. The met office is obligated to pass the information about the imminent dangers as a result of extreme weather (Wilson & Giles 2013, p. 210). The office ought to inform the councils, the general population and principally people living within areas that have been mapped to be at high risk, the traffic department, and all news networks. Communication from the relevant office is crucial especially when there is a danger of disruption of daily operations within a certain region, risk of losing lives, and possibility of structural damage. When information about meteorological disasters has been generated, the warning message to the community should be unequivocal and well-known (Freeman 2001, p. 14). The radio and TV are the most common channels used by the meteorological department to communicate warnings associated with extreme weather to the people in high-risk areas (Paul, 2001 p. 742). The radio is the most straightforward method of communication because the warning information can be delivered within a short time. The television is also commonly used because it is easy to demonstrate the satellite graphics of the imminent danger as well as showing how areas are mapped depending on the risk level. It is easier for locals to understand the risk of the hazard when it is demonstrated by the use of pictures and graphics.
The aviation and the marine departments are dependent on the warnings from the met office for their daily operations. The office needs to pass the message to the marine and aviation unit because failure to receive such warnings can lead to serious accidents (Russell 2011, p. 27). The information concerning the possibility of hazards is more useful to pilots especially during seasons when thunderstorms, fog, and gales are common. The flight or aerodrome forecasts alone cannot generate the required information about weather hazards. The aviation department has direct access to the met websites, and they can also receive frequent communications from the office. The marine units are highly affected when strong waves occur, and the frequent communication from the meteorological department is fundamental to thwart disruptions of marine operations (Pirjola et al. 2005, p. 16).
The met office should feed the warning information on all reliable news networks for easy accessibility by the general public as well as specific groups. The internet is currently one of the most accurate and dependable channels because the message can easily be spread via the social media channels (Bradley, McFarland, & Clarke 2014 p. 105). The weather forecasting department has some excellent sites through which people can view information about the sequence of weather hazards at any time. The emergency departments liaise with the weather forecasters to prepare in advance before a disaster occurs (Glavovic & Smith 2014, p. 78). The hazard control and the emergency response units should be among the first groups that the met office gives warning messages to allow them to take necessary action before the hazards approach. Traffic operations are also interrupted by extreme weather conditions (Loughlin et al. 2015, p. 66). Failure to communicate within time to the traffic department can lead to transportation breakdown and even loss of lives. The information is important especially for evacuation of people from dangerous areas. When floods are forecasted, people are normally moved to the safe areas as a short-term solution (Beven & Hall 2014, p. 43). Long-term solutions are also based on the meteorological reports for example construction of structures that are durable and cannot be destroyed by the prevalent hazards within those places (Song, Singer, & Siscoe 2001, p. 70).
How weather warnings are used
The basic purpose of generating meteorological hazard warnings is to inform the pertinent people or departments to take necessary actions to reduce the impact of the disasters. The council is obligated to ensure that information about the impending hazards is properly disseminated to the concerned persons. The council has some communication options at its disposal, and it must select the most appropriate channel. In the United Kingdom, several departments have been established to handle particular hazards associated with extreme weather conditions. Hazards like floods, snow, ice, storms, and tornadoes are handled by different departments to ensure that the most suitable actions are taken (Shaw & Sharma 2011, p. 64). The most common action that is taken whenever the met office raises the alarm about imminent danger is the evacuation of people in the safe zones. Moving people from the dangerous areas is the most preferred option to control impacts of hazards (Gregoriou & Palgrave 2007, p. 114). The priority is typically given to saving lives followed by preventing property damage. The course of action is reliant on the communication from the met office because the information reveals the severity of the expected danger. For places that have been experiencing extreme weather recurrently, the data is used to design solutions that will help to lessen the damages caused by similar disasters in the future (Carbary 2005, p. 31). For a specific hazard like floods, Defra has the general national obligation for the formulation of policies for flood control and the management of the coastal erosion. The department plays a core role in the management of floods by funding all activities related to controlling the disaster (Cummunis & Mahul 2009, p. 81). The department's actions and funding programs are influenced by the information generated by the met office through the councils. When there is a risk of flooding, the district councils call the lead local flood authorities to contain the risks. The authorities have the mandate and strategies to take necessary steps to control floods. When the councils receive warnings about snowfall and ice, they must communicate to the highways agency because the outcomes of the hazards are likely to affect highway operations within the affected areas (Woo 2016, p. 226). After receiving the information, the highways agency informs the motorists about the expected difficulties in using the roads within affected areas (Hapgood 2017, p. 546). The authority might decide to discourage motorists from using certain roads to avoid the challenges of rescuing stranded road users (Dilling, et al. 2010, p. 105). The councils use the warnings to inform concerned departments to take appropriate actions.
Evaluation
Most parts of the United Kingdom are prone to different kinds of weather-related hazards. For a long time, the UK has been relying on the weather warnings from the meteorological department to design and take suitable actions to prevent impacts connected to the hazards (Burkle & Greenough 2006, p. 334). The methods and techniques used to generate the warnings guarantee reliability because the predictions are always true (Walker 2011, p. 11). Whenever warnings about extreme weather conditions are given, the necessary resources are mobilised to take the right action to contain the situation (Diallo, Aoki, Aoyama, & Watanabe 2017, p. 17). The communications from the met office have enabled the UK to save lives and properties by taking equitable actions in time.
Conclusion
Since weather conditions fluctuate erratically, the meteorological department updates the warnings regularly to avoid giving wrong information. The information is revised on an hourly basis when the possibility is too high. The frequency of updating the warnings varies depending on the predicted probability. The period can range from several hours to a day based on the likelihood of the occurrence. The met office has set up communication channels through which it disseminates the information about weather warnings. The department's website ensures that people have easy access to the information. They also communicate to the relevant authorities for the rightful actions to be taken in relation to diminishing the consequences of weather-related disasters.
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