'Brexit' and its Impact
‘Brexit’ is the colloquial term that has been adopted to describe the prospective exit of Britain as a nation from the European Union. In June 2016, 51.9 percent of the citizens voted in favor of exiting this union in what was an unexpected turn of events as expected globally. The move has caused varied effects in different aspects and structures of the United Kingdom such as the nation’s economy and sense of security and stability which is likely to be disturbed by the move. The exit from the European Union by the United Kingdom is expected to be completed by or on 29th March 2019. The decision also presents certain opportunities for the country of Britain as well as threats that arise from the exit of the U.K. from the E.U (Dhingra et al., 48).
Background
The United Kingdom joined the European Union later after its formation and was not a signatory to the three treaties that formed the Union. Britain had made two initial applications to join the community but they were both rejected by the president of France. When Charles de Gaulle relinquished power in 1969, the United Kingdom made their final and successful application. However, by 1975, there were apparent divides within the government regarding their membership in the European community. This forced the country into a referendum with the question on whether the United Kingdom should remain in the European Union. The majority of those who voted chose to remain in the union and thus Britain remained. Statistically, the referendum of 1975 is quite unrelated to the one that initiated the process of ‘Brexit’ in 2016. Subsequently, there have been attempts to strengthen this relationship between Britain and the rest of Europe. Some of these attempts include the Maastricht treaty that eventually led to the transformation of the European Community to the European Union which was fairly successful but fell under the shadow of the failure of Britain’s Sterling Pound to hold off pressure from currency speculators as a result of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (EERM). An excess of three billion sterling pounds was incurred on U.K. taxpayers.
Other factors influencing the Relationship
Other factors that have influenced the relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom include the rise of ‘Euroscepticism’ as an ideology among the citizens of the United Kingdom. The term describes the wish of the United Kingdom to reduce or remove entirely the powers and control of the European Union upon the activities of the United Kingdom. Furthermore, Margaret Thatcher’s administration was characterized by tough talk against the European Community and the massive contribution the country made towards the EEC budget despite Britain being the third poorest nation in the community then (Goodwin and Oliver 332). Another attempt to change this relationship was made by Sir James Goldsmith in 1994 with his Referendum party that advocated for another referendum to decide on the membership of the U.K. in the European Union. The party only seized a meager 2.6 percent of the popular vote and no parliamentary seats. Such has been the attitude of the United Kingdom towards being members of the European Union; swinging between pro-European Union and anti-European Union policies and activities.
Process of 'Brexit'
During his campaign for reelection in 2013, James Cameron highlighted some of the challenges that faced Europe and promised to renegotiate the terms between the United Kingdom and the European Union. Upon reelection, Cameron went ahead to commence on negotiations for the various issues that the United Kingdom wanted to be addressed in their relationship with the E.U. The issues include easier methods of blocking E.U. legislation in the U.K., adjustment of welfare payments to E.U. migrants and better safeguards in the financial structure of the E.U. for Britain. The results of the negotiation process were made public in February 2016 and the date of the expected referendum set for June 23rd the same year.
Immediate Outcomes and Consequences
The referendum recorded over 71 percent turnout with over thirty million people voting. 51.9 percent of the voters opted out of the European Union with a slim margin (Goodwin and Oliver 327). However, various issues immediately arose as a result of the referendum. England and Wales both had a majority of voters opting out while Northern Ireland and Scotland choosing to remain in the Union (Hobolt 1263). The question of a vote on Scottish independence immediately arose as a result. Cameron was pro-European Union and as soon as the result of the referendum was confirmed, he resigned from office. His successor, Theresa May soon after summoned Article 50 relating to the Treaty of Lisbon on the European Union and had it submitted to the European Union council on March 29th 2017. This action gives formal notice of the intention of Britain to leave the European Union and officially starts the two-year countdown to the date of exit that is temporarily set to March 30th, 2019. Presently, the U.K. and the European Union are holding discussions and negotiations regarding the transition.
Expected Outcomes
One of the primary reasons for the call for Brexit was the increase of immigrants and refugees from the Middle East which made it difficult for the government of the U.K. to tackle issues such as terrorism. As a result, the U.K. will be able to restrict free movement into and out of the country (Heisbourg 19). Furthermore, the United Kingdom will now be exempted from paying the European Union membership fee. The government of the U.K. will also be able to impose tax without restriction from the European Union regulations.
As a result of exiting the European Union, the growth of the United Kingdom’s Economy is expected to stunt to 2.4 percent in 2018, 1.9percent in 2019 and 1.6 percent in 2020. This is according to the Treasury chief Phillip Hammond (Whitman, 217). Furthermore, import and export tariffs are expected to increase following Brexit which will increase the cost of business in the U.K. reducing the competitiveness of these companies (Dhingra, et al., 83). In the long term, Britain’s young workforce will miss out on job opportunities as a result of the projected labor shortage that is slated to hit Germany by 2030. U.K. companies will miss out on contracts for companies in E.U. member states. It is also expected that the U.K. will lose the benefits of the advanced research and technology shared between the European Union member States.
Conclusion
The events surrounding the process of Britain’s exit from the European Union are a stark testament to the relationship between the U.K. and the E.U. Both parties stand to benefit as well as lose something from the exit but it seems the United Kingdom has a bigger cost to bear as a result of the decision to exit the economic and political community.
Works cited
Dhingra, Swati, et al. "The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards." (2016).
Dhingra, Swati, et al. "The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK." BREXIT 2016 24 (2016).
Goodwin, Matthew J., and Oliver Heath. "The 2016 referendum, Brexit and the left behind: an aggregate‐level analysis of the result." The Political Quarterly 87.3 (2016): 323-332.
Heisbourg, François. "Brexit and European security." Survival58.3 (2016): 13-22.
Hobolt, Sara B. "The Brexit vote: a divided nation, a divided continent." Journal of European Public Policy 23.9 (2016): 1259-1277.
Whitman, Richard G. Devolved external affairs: the impact of Brexit. Chatham House, 2017.
