Essays on Forecasting

What did Denrell and Fang (2010) discover about the track record of economists who excelled at forecasting 'extreme' outcomes? They had a worse overall record. That is, aside from severe outcomes, they projected incorrectly in all other cases. What exactly is a Black Swan event? A haphazard and unexpected scenario that deviates from...

Analysis of previous information is necessary for forecasting changes in market performance indicators (Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung, 2015). Analysts must create models that make use of the statistical data gleaned from market research in order to produce accurate predictions of market performance. Regression models can be used by WidgeCorp...

The Consensus about Worldwide Cooling The consensus about worldwide cooling never endured among scientists; this was a deception created by the media. The scientific paper created between 1965 and 1979 proves that there was no before-mentioned global cooling. The best scientists in the field composed this paper, which was peer-reviewed. Furthermore,...