Production of greenhouse gases by activities aimed at sustaining human life has been cited as the major contributor to climate change in the globe. Among the main effect of climate change is the heat waves that have been experienced all over the world. North Western Europe, in particular, is becoming more vulnerable to the effects of the phenomenon. In the last decade, the area has received more intense heat waves that have also increased in frequency. The deadliest heat wave so far is the European wave of 2003 that led to massive losses and deaths in the area. Intensive research has been done to address the subject, however, there lacks a research that integrates the social and environmental effects of heat waves to this region.
The purpose of this research was to review the effects of past heat waves and develop the environmental and social effects they have in North Western Europe. The main objectives of this study were to establish the social effects of heat waves assess the environmental effects and establish the relationship between global warming and increased frequency of the occurrences. The investigation involved the documentary analysis of the existing literature and typological analysis of the available information to come up with the required information.
Increased mortality, a rise in crime rate, social impacts of the destruction of key infrastructure, food shortages and impacts on the disaster management have been noted as the main social effects of heat waves. Effects on the ecosystem, increased cases of flash floods, wildfires and heightened cases of pollution were identified as the main environmental impacts. The Literature review was also able to establish the relationship between the increased cases of heat waves to global warming. The research also noted the existence of little literature on the impacts of heat waves on the environment and calls for more research to address the subject.
The investigation has shown that the impacts of heat waves are expected to increase in the future. The study is going to isolate the effects of a heat wave on the environment and socially from the available knowledge in this field. The results from this study will be important to develop new mitigation techniques to address the effects or stop the events before they happen.
Key words: heat wave, climate, environment, temperature, climate change, global warming.
Executive Summary
Heat waves are defined as an increase in the normal temperature of an area by more than 5 degrees Celsius for a period of over five consecutive days. There has been an explicit increase in temperature in Northwest parts of Europe, which can be attributed partly to the recent global climatic changes. Acceleration of the situation means there will be even bigger increase in temperature in the coming days. A number of literature on heat waves and their various effects on the society health and economics has been documented. However, there lacks a document that integrates the impact this phenomenon has on the peoples’ environment and socially in North Western Europe. This region is home to countries, such as United Kingdom, France, Netherland, Belgium, and Sweden. Research has shown that there exists an association between heat waves and the climatic changes resulting from global warming. The increase in global warming means the rate of recurrence and intensity of heat waves is expected to surge in the future. Over the years, North Western Europe has experienced heat waves with the worst happening in the summers of 2003 and 2010. The effects of these events and other heat waves in the past were used to understand the effects they have on the people and the environment. This research utilizes the various available resources, both print and electronic and tries to draw the conclusions on the social and environmental effects of the same. The resources have an inclusion criteria of being less than seven years old and addressing the topic of heat waves. The impacts were then discussed and several recommendations given.
Heat Wave and the Effects on People Environmentally and Socially in North-West Europe
Chapter One
1.1. Introduction
The World Meteorological Organization terms heat wave as a situation when the highest temperature in a day surpasses the normal daily temperature by nine degrees Celsius for a period of over five consecutive days. They are marked by an unusually hot and uncomfortable humid air. The heat waves are triggered by stagnant and warm masses of air. The mid-tropospheric ridge aloft and high pressure systems characterize areas that suffer from intense hot spells. Clear skies or partly cloudy weather allows the sun to heat the air mass and the ground. The natural body mechanism for cooling is by sweating and the humid atmosphere reduces the body’s capacity to cool by perspiring, which results in endangering of the various living species on the affected areas (metoffice.gov.uk, 2018).
1.1.1. Background
Countries found in North Western Europe, include Germany, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Sweden, Norway, Northern France, Denmark, Netherland, and Belgium. The region has over the years been a victim of heat waves, with the most lethal one to date occurring in 2003, which resulted in the death of over 20,000 people (metoffice.gov.uk, 2018). Research has shown that a relationship exists between the heat waves and mortality rate in the cities affected.
This area has become a victim of massive heat waves recorded from as early as the 1950s. Depending on the heat magnitude, some of waves have been more severe than the other. Russo, Sillmann, and Fischer (2015) list the worst extreme heat to occur in the area. The United Kingdom Heat waves of 1906 and 1911 marked the earliest recorded heat waves in Northwest Europe, the temperature during the 1911 heat waves soared to between 33 and 36 degrees Celsius, which took seventy-nine years for temperatures higher to be recorded. The wave was followed by another heat wave in 1955 and 1976 that resulted in the worst drought ever recorded, with 1955 being more severe. In 1983, another heat wave struck with a maximum temperature of 32 degrees Celsius being recorded during the day. 1988 followed by the 1990 heat waves were by far the most severe with the latter recording the highest temperatures ever of 37 degrees Celsius (Russo, Sillmann and Fischer, 2015). In the 21st
century, the area has continued to receive more heat waves at an even higher frequency. The wave of 2003 is by far the most deadly as the temperatures rose to an all-time high of 47 degrees in French cities, such as Paris, while Belfast in Ireland and Benelux in Germany received temperatures in the excesses of 35 degrees Celsius. Estimates show that the occurrence resulted in the death of at least 15,000 people (Morignat et al, 2014).
Other recorded heat waves incidences occurred in 2006, 2007, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, and the latest one happening in last year, 2017, which resulted in rekindling of wildfires and the death of at least two people (The New York Times, 2017). According to the UN HABITAT (2013), most people in North Western Europe live in urban areas, and this number is expected to increase further in the future. The accumulation of people and resources in the same regions makes the areas particularly vulnerable to the impacts of heat waves. Assessment by the European Union has shown that the occurrences of a heat wave are going to increase in the coming years (Guerreiro et al., 2018). The assessment further shows that various types of droughts; hydrological, agricultural or meteorological are projected to become more common and last even longer. The analysis of the extreme river flows has also shown they will decrease in volume (Rojaset al, 2012).
A research by Guerreiro et al. (2018) calculated the projection of European cities into the future. The research found out that by comparing various standards of environmental impact, flooding, heat waves and droughts are predicted to increase and affect all the 571 cities in Europe. The heat waves are also expected to be more severe and common. Guerreiro et al. (2018), also found out that in future cities in North Western Europe are to expect the highest flooding ever with rivers soaring to more than fifty percent more than their previous high flows. The study further projects that at least more than 100 cities are prone to more than one effect of climate change.
1.1.2. Effects of Heat Waves
The human body can function optimally within a small range of temperatures around 37 degrees Celsius. Higher temperatures pose a threat to the various physiological activities that happen within the body. While the higher latitude areas are suffering from the impacts of global warming, the majority of the effects of heat waves is expected to occur in the tropics, where the temperatures and humidity are ideal for the phenomenon to occur. The occurrences should be a concern since most of the countries in the region have less access to a reliable electric grid and air conditioning (Mora et al, 2017).
Extended exposure to extreme heat can have a number of health effects, which include heat cramps, exhaustion, heat stroke, death as well as worsening existing conditions, such as respiratory complications, cardiovascular and cerebral problems. The conditions usually affect the more at risk groups, such as children, the elderly, the socio-economically disadvantaged, and the socially isolated group of people (sociaux, 2018). An increase in global temperatures as a result of global warming means more mortality and heat-related ailments are to be expected in the future. The human body operates best at 37 degrees, above this temperature, it relies on thermoregulation, by homeostasis and sweating, when one sweats water and other molecules are released through the sweat glands, once on the surface, the sweat evaporates cooling off the body. The existence of hot humidity in the environment hinders the process of natural perspiration leading to heat strokes (sociaux, 2018).
Heat waves have shown to not only influence health, and mortality, but also affect the productivity of self-paced industrial workers greatly as the body cannot maintain the high oxygen requirement needed to function in a fast environment. Workers who work outside are also affected due to the occupational safety requirements. The losses of production time can be translated into economic terms. Additionally, the high cases of medical conditions can cause a strain on the health facilities, which means the government has to invest more in the health of the residents. The heat can also strain steel and metallic structures causing them to buckle and pose a serious threat to residents and locals, in addition to damaging crops and the consequent effects, such as the rise in food prices. An excessive use of electricity can also lead to straining of power sources leading to producers to revert to emergency reserves to fill the increased demand. Heat waves results in using gasoline and natural gas to produce the extra electricity, which may, in the long run, causes an increase in power prices.
Heat waves have different impacts to the society, for example, the amplified usage of air conditioners will mean more energy requirements, which will translate to more stress on resources and corresponding economic impacts, such as increased demand for gasoline and electric utilities (Otto et al., 2017). They also cause railway lines to warp and buckle while the surfaces of roads melt, the heat greatly affects the transport sector, which is an integral part of any economy. Since people cannot go outside, outdoor economic activities are greatly affected, additionally; impact on agricultural products and livestock by resulting in stunted crops and death of stock. Reduced agricultural production can result in lowered food availability, and thus, increase the price of food items.
Extreme heat also has serious consequences on the human health, in the United States, it has been noted that on average more people are killed of extreme heat than other natural disasters, such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes combined. The main contributor of heat-associated deaths is high humidity and intensified night-time temperatures which can cause heat stroke resulting in the increasing the body's core temperatures to above 40 degrees Celsius, hot and dry skin and ultimately the systems that enable a human body to adapt to heat changes becomes overwhelmed, which results in brain dysfunction (Harmon and Harmon, 2018).
1.2. Causes of Heat waves
Heat waves are weather conditions marked by a stationary air pressure over a particular area (Guerreiro et al., 2018). As a result of natural impacts of high pressure on the atmosphere, the particular region experiences high temperatures which do not disperse easily. The high pressure causes slowdown of air current resulting in minimal wind. The impact is a prolonged period of abnormally high temperature than those experienced in a location. There is reduced cloud cover and the sun shines continually throughout the day. Ordinary weather patterns, such as rainfall and wind work to eliminate the excess heat in the atmosphere; however, the existence of humidity signifies that there is lack of both. The presence of heat wave also means that the air systems remain stationary and the chemicals from factories and gases released from the burning of fossil fuels, such as car exhaust fumes and agricultural chemicals remain in the atmosphere (Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, 2018). The bright sunlight and water vapour in the atmosphere generate the perfect environment to create smog, which is a mixture of fog and smoke. With no air currents, there are reduced conventional currents; hence, the smog remains near the ground surface. The concentration of the haze can rise to lethal levels in high-populated areas, such as major cities while lots of chemical wastes are being produced with time.
Desert winds can also cause heat waves; winds carrying warm air can blow the air into an area, which for meteorological or geographical reasons cannot be able to cool down the environment (Guerreiro et al., 2018). Failure of a region to reduce the temperature naturally can lead to a heat wave. Heat waves from desert winds are not common in Europe but are regular in other regions near deserts. A good example of a region experiencing this kind of heat wave are common in the towns of Ain Sefra, Saida, and Oran, in Algeria where hot blasts of winds from the Sahara blow into the areas resulting in temperature surge, on average of 15 to 90 times (Tabet-Aoul, 2018). A city not cooling down as much as the surrounding environment because of weather condition can also result in the occurrence of a heat wave, a condition known as an ‘urban island effect' (Jedlovec, Crane and Quattrochi, 2017). The effect is mostly accelerated by a large amount of surface that retains heat. The consequence is an area that is warmer than the surrounding, especially during the night, a condition known as ‘urban heat island’. The urban island has effects, such as an increased temperature of stream waters, lengthening of growing period of some crops, and reduced incidences of weak tornadoes. In general, the main cause of a heat wave is the inability of a certain location to cool down normally through the earth's natural cooling system of using the wind and rain, leading to a high-pressure region (Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, 2018).
1.3. Heat Wave and Climate Change
According to Centre for Climate and Energy Solutions (2018), the globe is currently experiencing less cold days while the hot days are becoming hotter and hotter. The recorded highest temperatures have also increased, this has been associated with the surge in release of greenhouse gases as humans power their daily lives, at the same time the recorded lowest temperatures have reduced (Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, 2018). The world leaders have been carrying out various measures to try and cut greenhouse emissions to the atmosphere. The most significant one is the Paris Climate Agreement, which calls on countries to try to reduce fossil fuel emission (Miller, 2018). Impacts of this agreement will have a ripple effect of lowered greenhouse gases in the environment and possibly lowered instances of deadly heat waves. The withdrawal of the United States from the agreement in the August of 2017 poses an uncertainty in the management of greenhouse gases as the country is a major contributor to releasing gases to the environment (Miller, 2018).
Global warming has been cited as a major cause of the increase in heat waves. the phenomenon has also been blamed for other effects, such as melting of polar glaciers, dying of cloud forests, and rise in sea levels. These indicators make it apparent that the humans are warming the globe through the various activities carried out to power the modern day life. The condition is resulting in changes in climate by altering the weather patterns that life on earth has relied on for years. The process of warming up of the Earth’s atmosphere has come to be known as the greenhouse effect, which is majorly caused by gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere which absorbs heat from the earth surface and radiates it back. The higher the concentration of these gases in the atmosphere is, the more heat they trap, and the more they heat the surface. Research has shown that burning fossil fuel, which is a major source of energy in the planet, contributes to the increases of the greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. The continuing use of these sources of energy will make heat waves the norm by the end of the 21st century. However, research has shown that if extreme measures are made to manage the use of fossil fuels, the issue of heat waves will be managed by 2040 (Guerreiro et al., 2018).
The high temperatures recorded in the summers of 2010 and 2003 raises the concern of the impact it is having on the ecosystems as well as human activities. According to a report by the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC), the average temperatures of the surface of the earth has increased by 0.6 degrees over the last two decades to a value that is now 0.15 degrees higher than the data in the previous reports. The countries in the northern hemisphere have been shown to be at a higher risk since the temperature rise in this area is at an all-time high in the last 1000 years (Ipcc.ch, 2017). The result is the occurrences of extreme weather conditions becoming more frequent. Mora et al, (2017) has shown that in the future, heat waves are expected to be more deadly, more common, and to cover larger portions of the universe, hence becoming an even greater catastrophe. The research, which was published the Nature Climate change estimates that at the beginning of the next century, a fifth of the world population will be subjected to not less than 20 days of heat and humidity associated with serious heat wave every year (Mora et al, 2017). This research uses documentary analysis to develop the impacts on the society.
1.4. Research Aim
The purpose of this investigation is to look at historical heat waves and establish the effect they have on people environmentally and socially.
1.5. Objectives
1. To assess the environmental impacts of heat waves on the society in North Western Europe.
2. To establish the social impacts of heat waves in North Western Europe.
3. To establish the relationship between global warming and the surge in the frequency of heat waves in North West Europe.
The objectives will be met by carrying out a literature review from scientific journals and articles.
Literature Review
2.1. Heat Hazard
Epidemiological studies have proved that heat waves have effects on the human health. Despite the lack of a standard and scientifically rigorous definition of a heat wave, serious relationship has been shown to exist with the rates of mortality. Europe, in particular, has shown a consistent pattern between instances of a heat wave and a rise in the rate of mortality. The effects of heat wave impacts also rely on regional factors, demographics and individuals. Irrespective of the definition, global warming will result in, more extreme and longer lasting heat waves (Ramis and Amengual, 2018). The result from this study is collaborated by a research by Guo et al., (2017), who after analyzing the effects of heatwaves on mortality internationally concluded that the high temperatures caused by this phenomenon created a substantial health implication with the effects being as similar if the hot temperature days had occurred independently. Recent investigations have called for dissection of the health impacts into two; the effects of daily high temperature as an explainable variable and modelling heat waves as a categorical variable. (Guo et al., 2017). In essence, it means dividing the effects between those that as a result of exposure to high temperature and those that occur as a result of exposure over an extended period. According to Kang et al (2016), heat waves have been associated with increased cases of cardiac arrests, which is among the leading cause of death in developed nations. The elderly were particularly found to be more susceptible to this impact.
The effects of a heat wave as a natural hazard have been shown to be dependent on duration and magnitude of the extreme heat. According to Russo et al. (2014), after analysis of the various heat waves that have occurred over the years from the 1980s to 2012, he noted a significant relationship between the impacts of a heat wave and the effects it has on the ground. The Russian heat wave of 2010 was by far the most deadly in recent history (Russo et al. 2014). The temperature during this heat soared way beyond the previous extremes recorded in European heat wave of 2003. The temperatures during this period increased to over 50 percent of the normal (Russo et al. 2014). The heat wave results into intensive research as people sought scientific reasons for the cause of the phenomenon. According to a research by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 2010 heat wave in Russia is as a result of a natural occurrence as atmospheric blocking. Using computer simulations and historical observations, they were able to establish a pocket of an abnormally high and intense high pressure, which diverted weather systems around western Russia resulting to a mass of hot dry air over Moscow city for over a month.
The 2010 heat wave resulted in Russia having the worst drought in over 40 years, lasting from the start of July to the mid-august is estimated that it resulted in the loss of crops of almost 40 hectares (metoffice.gov.uk, 2018). There was a risk of wildfires as the remnants of the food crops were prone to catching fire, by the end of July, South-east of Moscow had suffered more than 40 peat fires resulting in the death of people, destruction of property and many were left homeless. Additionally, there was increased pollution, fires and smog. In normal circumstances, temperatures reduce with height, however, increased temperatures near the service led to ‘temperatures inversion’, where the rises with height. This posed a threat to various organisms that live in the atmosphere such as birds. Temperature inversion hinders dispersion of pollutants in the atmosphere and the high humidity ensures that fresh clean air is not brought in to the region. In the case of Russian heat wave, the case was more accelerated by the forest fires and fire from peats, which further contributed to the smog(metoffice.gov.uk, 2018). The polluted environment posed a risk to many people and most risks were those suffering from asthma, severe allergies and heart conditions. The high temperatures also took a toll on the demographics, with the country recording 14,000 deaths, which were 5,000 more than those that had been recorded in July of 2009 (metoffice.gov.uk, 2018). The Russian Emergency Ministry noted that around 2,000 people drowned as they tried to swim in rivers during this period (metoffice.gov.uk, 2018).
Prior to 2010, the extreme heat wave recorded was in 2003 and affected a string of European nations, such as Germany, Turkey, Italy, France, and Spain. The extreme heat began in June and continued to mid-august raising the temperatures by over 30 percent. With extreme of 40 degrees Celsius being recorded in Paris (Unisdr.org, 2013). According to a report by United Nation Environmental Program (UNEP) on the heat wave, the phenomenon was caused by an anti-cyclone that held back the rain-bearing depressions from the Atlantic to Western Europe. The condition resulted in France recording the highest temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius and the United Kingdom recording its highest ever temperatures of 38.1 degrees Celsius. The heat wave is estimated to be responsible for a death toll of over 30,000 people and is ranked among the most lethal natural calamity in Europe in the last century (Unisdr.org, 2013). France recorded the highest number of casualties with data from the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM) showing that14, 802 casualties were recorded as a result of the heat wave and associated complications (Unisdr.org, 2013). The extreme weather really hit the winter crops, the warmth in the air greatly accelerated the ripening of some crop leading to reduced soil water and air, and hence reduced production. A country, such as Switzerland, which is considered to be the water tower of Europe, deviating river water for agriculture was restricted and this really affected tobacco and potato production. The Union of Swiss Farmers estimates that the heat wave resulted in a deficit of over $230 million (Unisdr.org, 2013). Other sectors that were hit either directly or indirectly by the wave include livestock fodder and livestock products in general, potato and the brewing industry, reduction in the cereals produced, it is estimated that the production of cereals in the European Union fell by 23 million tons from the previous year.
The UNEP report also notes that the hot dry air in the environment results in reduced photosynthesis by plants and consequently reduced production by crops and fodder by making them more vulnerable to insect attacks and diseases. Some vegetation covers were also killed and the high temperatures encouraged forest fires, which were intense (Unisdr.org, 2013). The 2003 heat wave was also reported to have a significant influence on the power production in France. Nuclear reactors depend on water from rivers to cool down, the waters from these rivers is only returned after it has cooled to low temperatures to reduce its impact on the environment. The water levels dropped so low that it was impossible to cool the reactors using this water and they had to stop operations and those that continued to operate had to be given legal exemption since they were operating beyond the legal limit. Additionally, the demand electricity increased as most people used refrigerators and air conditioners. The rise in power demand plus the reduced operating capacities of nuclear power plants resulted in France cutting down its electricity export by 75 percent (Unisdr.org, 2013). During the period of the heat wave, the period between July and August of 2003, research has shown that nearly 650,000 hectares of forest were burnt, which can be attributed to the extreme temperatures and criminal activities (Unisdr.org, 2013). The total number of fires recorded in Denmark, Finland, France, Austria, Portugal, and Ireland, was more than 25,000, with Portugal being the major victim (Unisdr.org, 2013).
Jedlovec, Crane and Quattrochi, (2017) carried out an investigation on the urban heat wave assessment and the risk assessment involved. The research found out that urban heat highland intensified the effects caused by the heat wave. The demographics of urban centres played a significant role in contributing to climate changes and as a result, the urban heat wave, which has been found to be among the leading causes of environmentally related deaths. Urban heat waves are expected to increase into the future as research has shown that majority of the world population is moving to cities and in the middle of the twenty-first century, it is anticipated that the higher population of the society will be living in urban centres (Russo et al., 2014). These changes will greatly impact the climate and weather patterns of the cities as the increased population will result in increased production of greenhouse gases as more energy will be needed to power their lives. Cities will present a health risk to those affected by heat as during heat waves, their temperatures will be greatly impacted by the urban heat island effect. City residents will also be at risk of secondary effects of heat waves, such as flooding, reduced air quality, disruption of the city’s drainage and pollution of water resource, disruption and possible annihilation of a section of the city’s biodiversity among other risks. Recent studies are trying to find a solution to the problem of urban heat island in different locations. A research by Wang, Berardi and Akbari (2016) showed that the occurrence of this effect can be reduced. The study showed that by altering the structural materials, such as utilizing cool surfaces on buildings, road pavements and various areas in the city, it could greatly influence the thermal comfort that plays a significant role in causing urban heat islands. More research is being carried out to develop cities that are more resilience to the effects of climate changes happening every day.
2.2 Vulnerability to Heat
The level of effects caused by the extreme heat is determined by the degree of exposure (Lemonsu et al., 2015). Vulnerability describes o the way people respond to exposure to climate change. Research has established different threshold temperatures depending on the cause of death (Lemonsu et al., 2015). Among the factors that influence this threshold temperature is age, with the elderly and young children being at the highest risk. Humidity has also been noted to be a major indicator in defining the threshold temperature. Individuals living in more humid areas are at a greater risk as ore water in the environment really affects the body’s physiological activities, such as perspiration (Lemonsu et al., 2015). A research by Nayak et al., (2017) tried to identify the main vulnerabilities that influence people’s exposure to heat in New York State. Their analysis showed that age and social isolation, social economics, language and environmental location were the main factors that influenced the exposure to extreme heat. Ethnicity and race also showed significant factors that that influence vulnerability to heat. Hispanic and African-Americans were found to be at a more risk compared to Caucasians (Nayak et al., 2017).
More Hispanic were noted to be hospitalized from the effects of heat waves while there was a higher rate of distress calls from African-American neighbourhoods compared to the other races. The language was also noted to be a factor that contributes to the vulnerabilities to heat waves. In most cities, alerts are given in the native language, thus eliminating the small group of alien populations. The social economic status of the people, such as poverty, unemployment and level of education have also been identified to greatly impact vulnerabilities as they determine the ability of the particular section of the population to purchase or even have access to air-conditioned cooling areas or shaded amenities (Nayak et al., 2017). Vegetation covers and various land coverings also play an important role in determining heat vulnerabilities, for example in rural areas, most of the land is under vegetation cover, which is able to absorb and dissipate heat fast, thus ensuring a cool environment. On the other hand, the materials used for construction in urban areas, such as cement and asphalt absorb heat and take longer to cool creating an urban heat island effect (Nayak et al., 2017). This plays a major role in aggravating the effects and influences the vulnerability to extreme heat. The research also established a relationship between urban heat wave and city planning, and hence relationship with the heat wave vulnerabilities. The dif
