Florissant Population and Planning
Florissant has a population of 52,168 people according to the 2010 census (American Fact Finder, 2017). Wade (2015) stated that it is difficult to design a good scenario for the future without considering historical tendencies. For the past 20 years, the pattern has been a rather modest drop in population each year. Numerous attempts have been made over the years to increase population by annexing unorganized regions adjacent to the municipal borders. The motive for sustaining a given population level is primarily owing to some funding systems for community services. Another motivation is the idea that the city is a "pool city" meaning that most of the regular sales tax revenue is put in a pool with all other St. Louis County municipalities and distributed per capita.
Population Scenario
A scenario where the population decreased substantially over the next 20 years would be a challenge for the city of Florissant. Decreased population leads to reduced revenue. Reduced revenue forces cuts in services and personnel. Reduced services could lead to seniors not being able to leave their homes because the senior bus is not able to run or the city does not have enough employees to drive the bus. It could lead to a drop in property values because there is not enough staff to keep up with the code violations. Some residents would take advantage of no oversight and let their properties break down which leads to others possible moving out of the city. This scenario presents fairly predictable trends but with proper planning the impact could be reduced.
Labor Force Trends
Changes in the labor force are a trend that would affect a city's ability to provide services as well. Baby boomers are aging and will be out of the work force in the next 20 years (Toossi, 2002). More women are in the work force than ever before and that number will increase (Toossi, 2002). Toossi (2002) noted that a resource for labor force information is the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics website at https://www.bls.gov.
Aging Population Trend
An aging population would also have an impact on the city and services provided. A source for data on aging trends is the Social Security Administration website at www.ssa.gov/open/data. This is a predictable trend because life expectancy has increased due to finding cures for diseases. Wiatrowski (2001) discussed the idea that people are living longer and staying in the workforce longer, so it does not leave openings for the younger generation to get jobs. This is good and bad, fewer jobs for younger people but less strain on the services offered by the government.
Political Trends
Politics of a country have implications on the provision of services. Political certainty is related to growth in the GDP of a country (Radu, 2015). This means that when the general populace is sure of the political stability in a country, they tend to engage freely in business activities. The service delivery in such a stable economy is likely to be enhanced as chances of interruptions from political activities are minimized. On the contrary, as explained by Aisen and Veiga (2013), political instability is a major hindrance to the service delivery in a city. Should the city experience political instability, key decision makers are likely to make sub-optimum macroeconomic policies by the prevailing temperatures. The setting of incomprehensive policies may affect the activities including service delivery in the city. Likewise, the people involved in various activities may be reluctant to engage in business due to the uncertainty of the future. Currently, the city is relatively stable, and service delivery and thus revenue generation is optimal.
Technological Trends
Another factor that may affect revenue generation is technology. Over the last two decades, the use of technology has gained momentum with the automation of various processes taking a course in many cities. Florissant City is not an exception. A case in point is the adoption of the smart city proposed by IBM for the automation of processes in cities across the globe. According to Paroutis, Bennett and Heracleous (2013), the use of technology is likely to automate certain complicated services by the city. This ensures there is accuracy in the delivery of services. With efficient service delivery, the city is likely to experience a surge in revenue collection. This is indeed factual going by the facts provided by IBM regarding its smart city initiative.
References
Aisen, A., & Veiga, F. J. (2013). How does political instability affect economic growth?. European Journal of Political Economy, 29, 151-167.
American Fact Finder (2017). Retrieved from : https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml
Paroutis, S., Bennett, M., & Heracleous, L. (2014). A strategic view on smart city technology: The case of IBM Smarter Cities during a recession. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 89, 262-272.
Radu, M. (2015). The impact of political determinants on economic growth in CEE countries. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 197, 1990-1996.
Toossi, M. (2002). A Century of Change: The U.S. Labor Force from 1950 to 2050. Monthly Labor Review, 125(5), 15-28.
Wade, P. A., & Wade, W. (2015). Scenario planning: A field guide to the future [ebrary version]. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
Wiatrowski, W. J. (2001). Changing Retirement Age: Ups and Downs. Monthly Labor Review, 124(4), 3-12.
