Global warming and climate change are often used interchangeably but have distinct meanings similar to the terms weather and climate. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (2017) defines global warming as the upward movement of temperature across the word from the 20th century due to increase in emission of fossil fuels during the industrial revolution. Climate change encompasses a broader range of global phenomena which add heat-trapping gases such as methane and carbon dioxide within the atmosphere. Climate change is also created by burning of fossil fuels and includes changes in temperature trends commonly described as global warming as well as changes in sea level, shifts in plant/flower blooming, extreme weather events and loss of ice mass in the Greenland, Arctic, Antarctica and mountain glaciers across the world (National Aeronautics and Space Administration). A typical example of extreme weather associated with climate change is the occurrence of a hurricane, a tropical cyclone moving with very high wind speeds accompanied by thunder lightning and rain. Hurricanes are destructive and cause massive loss of life, damage to infrastructure, and disease outbreaks (National Aeronautics and Space Administration). The most recent hurricane to hit some parts of the United States, Cape Verde and Bermuda was Hurricane Florence (National Aeronautics and Space Administration). In the United States, it resulted in massive power outages in the affected areas, disrupted family activity and led to the loss of life. A deep understanding of climate change and extreme weather events such hurricanes serves to reduce such incidences. There is broad-based agreement among scientists and other scientific bodies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Aeronautics and Space Administration that climate change is real and has intensified natural disasters such as hurricanes.
The rise in sea levels over the years increased the number of hurricanes within the America region. Hurricanes are natural events which occur within specific parts of the world. However, the gradual surge in sea levels caused by the harmful effects of global warming and climate change increased incidences of hurricanes within the Atlantic region. Thermal expansion of water which is caused by the warming of oceans and an increase in melting of land-based ice such as ice sheets and glaciers remain the two major global causes of the rising sea levels (Knutson et al. 6591). Increased heating of the earth surface due increase use of fossils fuels heats the earth’s surface. Oceans absorb close to 90% of the heated atmospheric heat associated with emissions from human activity (Kaufman). With the continued heating up of the ocean as well as atmospheric warming, sea levels are more likely to rise at higher levels compared to the past centuries. The effect is more likely to be felt in countries where a substantial portion resides within the coastal areas. For example, the United States has approximately 40% of its population living in coastal areas (National Aeronautics and Space Administration). The US has high emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases which heat up the earth’s atmosphere. Combining the high rise in sea levels within the United States due to human activity, it is more likely for the country to witness more intense hurricanes compared to other regions. The current rise in sea levels also increases future incidences of coastal storms including damaging hurricanes. Globally sea levels are projected to rise roughly by 1-4 feet within the next century which is more likely to amplify the coastal storm surge and result in more economic losses (Risser and Wehner). Increase in the sea levels has been shown to have magnified the effect of Hurricane Sandy which resulted in more than $65 million loss (Lackmann 556). Hurricane Florence which also occurred recently was also associated with increased sea levels which increase the destructive effects of the hurricane (Szathmary). According to NASA (2017), sea levels have tremendously risen within the coastal areas over the last 20 years further serving to demonstrate the possibility of future intense hurricanes in the future.
Global warming from anthropogenic human activity causes a considerable shift in the atmospheric conditions of the Arctic and Antarctic poles. As a result, poles become hotter than before and in the process reduced temperature differences between the two regions. This difference alters the movement of winds which frequently pass and drive large currents associated with hurricanes. The weakening of such winds was blamed on the recent heatwave which affected the United Kingdom. A previous study published under the American Meteorological Society studied the passage of approximately 22 hurricanes from 2004 and concluded that the lack of winds which pushed away the hurricane storms, increased the possibility of having intense hurricanes in the near future (Risser and Wehner 460). Slower storms would also mean that hurricanes were more likely to be longer increasing the possibility for more property damage and economic losses. In essence, if hurricane associated winds blow up against a given structure for a specific amount of time, it is more likely that the winds would knock down the structures. Slower storms are also associated with more rainfall which tends to push more water bodies to the coastal lines. This triple effect was shown in the most recent hurricanes to have hit the US.
The water vapor levels and ocean heat content have increased over the years due to increased global warming resulting in more intense tropical cyclones. The term tropical cyclones refer to a closed circulation of air over a subtropical or tropical ocean. Once the maximum wind speed within the cyclone exceeds, such storms become typhoons within the Pacific Ocean, hurricanes within the Atlantic Ocean, and cyclones in other areas (Walsh et al. 1000). The rise in water vapor an ocean heat content is linked to increased human activities such as clearing of forests and burning of fossil fuels which continuously elevate the levels of carbon dioxide in the environment. It also increases the amount of heat-trapping gases which steadily warm the ocean and land while increasing evaporation. As a consequence, oceans have absorbed more than 20 times the amount of heat over a short duration of time (Walsh et al. 1012). Subsequently, oceans have higher temperatures not only in the surface waters which are found in depths less than 100 feet but also in substantial depth which is more than 1500 feet (Walsh et al. 1014). The continuous warming of the ocean raises the sea level and expands the ocean. When such an effect is combined with melting of land ice, sea levels are even expected to rise even further. Considering that hurricanes are natural occurrences in some areas, the combined effects of global warming increases the intensity and frequencies in which hurricanes, as well as other natural disasters, occur in the world.
Global warming and climate change increase ocean surface temperatures and subsequently result in intense hurricanes. The duration of maximum wind speeds for previous cyclones have increased over the past thirty years in the process increasing the destructive nature of the hurricanes within the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. The percentage of hurricanes which are classified under category 4 or 5 have also increased during the same duration based on the current satellite data (Hand 23). Category 5 hurricanes are considered to be the strongest hurricanes which can form on the earth. The above findings show collinearity with an increase in sea surface temperatures in areas where tropical cyclones frequently originate.
Global warming affects the ocean dynamic circulation patterns which usually influences the distribution of cold and warm water in upper ocean depths. These oscillations last for decades. One of the most common oscillation is the El Nino Southern Oscillation which is present in the Pacific Ocean (Zimmerman et al. 1403). Atmospheric conditions such as low wind shear and humidity coupled together with the ocean oscillations relate with more strong storms over the short term. Global warming is linked to ever increasing warm sea surface temperature and the rising incidences of category 4 and 5 hurricanes (Zimmerman et al. 1406). The above-average temperatures noted from the North Atlantic Ocean primarily come from ocean oscillations, normal weather variations as well as global warming. Out of the three variables above, global warming has been indicated to have the most significant effect. Tropical cyclones also generate numerous strong winds which mix with the surface of ocean water in the process churn up colder water which serves to weaken most storms and in the process stop most hurricanes (Zimmerman et al. 1410). However, if deeper waters within large water bodies such as oceans become warmer due to the effects of global warming, this natural braking mechanism diminishes and increases the possibility of hurricanes. Data from Hurricane Katrina indicate that sea surface temperatures rose while the hurricane was maintaining its path and that the storm intensified when it came into contact with deep pools of warm water coming from the Gulf of Mexico (National Aeronautics and Space Administration). In essence, the effects of global warming progressed the intensity of the hurricane along the Gulf of Mexico.
Global warming increases atmospheric heat which results in increased incidence of hurricanes. When air becomes warm, it usually rises and in the process creates an area with low pressure. The gap created by rising air results in a suction which continues to draw in the more warm air including the surrounding air. When this occurs across land surfaces, it does not result in any damage. However, when it occurs across large water bodies such as oceans, the moving warm air carries water and is thus referred to hurricane love. The hotter the air becomes, the wetter it gets with recent statistics indicating that for every one degree Celsius rise, the atmosphere holds on average approximately 7% times more water (Hegerl et al. 1098). The warming of air is linked to human activities which release gases associated with global warming. Global atmospheric pressure has been rising for a number of decades with increased dramatic seasonal variations. Such heat forms do not readily dissipate into the environment right away but instead keeps hanging around ultimately hanging around until the start of the hurricane season.
Climate change acts to breed more hurricanes and steer them towards areas where more damage would be felt. The current world ocean system is composed of numerous different systems of currents which act to transport heat and cold across various areas within the planet. Within the Northern hemisphere, the process is regulated by the hot-cold cycle commonly referred to as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation which involves predicting the Atlantic Ocean temperature shifts over a certain period (Kravtsov et al. 1326). The effects of global warming have readily changed the rhythm of such oscillations by keeping the warm ocean currents passing across the North American time past the required time and in the process shifting the cool phase. Such shifts draw the hurricanes up to higher latitudes resulting in more dangers to the human population which live close towards coastal areas.
The number of hurricanes has increased over the years as fewer measures are applied in reducing global warming. The 2015 North Atlantic hurricane season was coupled with a total of two major hurricanes, four hurricanes, and eleven tropical storms. The number of tropical storms during 1981-2010 was about 12 in number while the number of hurricanes within the same period was 6.4 (National Aeronautics and Space Administration). The number of major hurricanes was 2.7 while the number of tropical cyclones within the equatorial region was more than eight (National Aeronautics and Space Administration). The number of natural disaster events has increased considerably in one year compared to a period of 19 years (National Aeronautics and Space Administration). The most probable reason for such high numbers of natural events could be linked to the
Global warming and climate change opponents indicate that hurricanes occur naturally across the America region over the years. The main argument that natural disasters cannot be directly linked only with global warming and climate change. Scientific data indicates that hurricanes commonly occur within specific areas at given times of the year. For example, 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is still an ongoing event within the Northern Hemisphere which officially begins in June and ends early December or in the last weeks of November (National Aeronautics and Space Administration). These dates are historically described because most tropical cyclones within the Atlantic basin occurs during the period above. Based on the above calendar of events, climate change and global warming opponents indicate that hurricanes are a natural event similar to rainfall patterns across different parts of the tropics (Shao 74). Global warming opponents also suggest that if the changes in the climate were relatively big, then the hurricane season would have changed considerably with hurricanes appearing out of seasons. This argument has been countered in various fronts. First, the effects of global warming and climate change do not occur in an instant but across time. The consequences become more pronounced slowly over time. The heating up of the earth’s atmosphere through the constant burning of fossil fuels results in slow but slight shifts in the weather changes. The effects of global warming including changes in the sea levels changes in wind movement and atmospheric pressure all serve to increase the intensity of hurricanes rather than cause hurricanes which are already natural events. In essence, if adequate measures are not enforced regarding climate change and global warming, more intense hurricanes are expected to be observed over time. The perfect example of the effects of global warming and climate change is the recent Hurricane Florence whose effects were compounded due to the rise in sea levels and changes in atmospheric pressure and temperature.
Global warming and climate change pessimist argue out that changes observed in some natural disasters cannot be directly explained by climate science which is not considered to be as real science. Currently, there are some studies which directly conflict on the whether climate change describes the increased intensity of hurricanes. Some future model studies predict intense hurricane activity while others indicate that hurricanes will be slowed down. This conflicting information provided by different scientific views serve to increase the belief that the effects of global warming and climate change in increasing the intensity of hurricanes and other natural disasters is a hoax (Kachi et al. 230). Furthermore, climate science is heavily dependent on models which seek to predict whether the previous changes in climate conditions such as warmer atmospheric pressure and rise in sea levels. These models use statistical inferences to predict some of the future changes. In some instances, some of the models may not accurately predict the occurrence of specific outcomes accurately. As such use of statistical models has been shown to be incorrect in predicting the intensity of some hurricanes. Global warming pessimist use this poor statistical inference to further give prominence to the notion that hurricane events occur naturally and cannot be adequately explained by some of the data put forth by science (Kachi et al. 228). In reality, statistical inference only serves to demonstrate the probability of certain occurrences to specific levels of significance. Smaller outliers are common in statistics and as such cannot be used to rule out the information entirely. Statisticians have also in the past provided accurate predictions regarding hurricane events and their link to climate change and global warming. Furthermore, major scientific bodies across the world have fully supported findings indicating hurricanes and other natural disasters have intensified due to changes in the climate caused by human activity.
All in all, human activity such as the burning of fossil fuels and increased clearing of forests increased levels of carbon dioxide and other heat-gases within the environment. Gradually, this has altered essential aspects of the climate which regulate the intensity and frequency in which natural disasters such as hurricanes used to occur. Some common changes associated with global warming and climate change include the rise in sea levels caused by thermal expansion of water as well as melting of land ice caused by warm conditions, shifts in atmospheric pressure in Arctic and Antarctic region, increase in water vapor levels and ocean heat content, and changes in atmospheric heat. The resultant effect of the above changes has been scientifically proven by the increased intensity in which hurricanes occur within the natural environment. Global warming pessimists argue out the natural disasters have no link with global warming climate due to the contradictory positions put forward by various scientific bodies as well as natural occurrences of some of the hurricanes and other disasters. However, scientific institutions have compiled data over the years indicating the real threat posed by global warming to the entire continent. Anthropogenic human activities have been directly linked to climate change and global warming. Therefore, there is a need to develop measures which would reduce emission of gases which cause global warming as a measure of slowly remediating the current weather patterns.
Works Cited
Hand, Eric. “The Storm King.” Science, vol. 350, no. 6256, 2015, pp. 22–25, doi:10.1126/science.350.6256.22.
Hegerl, Gabriele C., et al. “Challenges in Quantifying Changes in the Global Water Cycle.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 96, no. 7, July 2015, pp. 1097–115, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00212.1.
Kachi, A., et al. “Climate Policy in Hard Times: Are the Pessimists Right?” Ecological Economics, vol. 114, 2015, pp. 227–41, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800915000865.
Kaufman, Mark. Hurricane Florence Storm Surges Will Be Amplified by Sea Level Rise. 2018, https://mashable.com/article/hurricane-florence-sea-level-rise-damage/#uWSNK2kQhaqj.
Knutson, Thomas R., et al. “Dynamical Downscaling Projections of Twenty-First-Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-Based Scenarios.” Journal of Climate, vol. 26, no. 17, Sept. 2013, pp. 6591–617, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1.
Kravtsov, S., et al. “Comment on ‘Atlantic and Pacific Multidecadal Oscillations and Northern Hemisphere Temperatures.’” Science, vol. 350, no. 6266, 2015, p. 1326, doi:10.1126/science.aab3570.
Lackmann, Gary M. “Hurricane Sandy before 1900 and after 2100.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 96, no. 4, 2015, pp. 547–60, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00123.1.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Global Warming vs. Climate Change | Resources – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet. https://climate.nasa.gov/resources/global-warming/. Accessed 18 Nov. 2018.
Risser, Mark D., and Michael F. Wehner. “Attributable Human-Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey.” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 44, no. 24, Dec. 2017, pp. 457–64, doi:10.1002/2017GL075888.
Shao, Wanyun. “Weather, Climate, Politics, or God? Determinants of American Public Opinions toward Global Warming.” Environmental Politics, vol. 26, no. 1, 2017, pp. 71–96, doi:10.1080/09644016.2016.1223190.
Szathmary, Zoe. “Hurricane Florence’s Path: Track the Storm Here.” Fox News, 2018.
Walsh, Kevin J. E., et al. “Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. Clivar Working Group on Hurricanes.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 96, no. 6, 2015, pp. 997–1017, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00242.1.
Zimmerman, Jess K., et al. “Effects of Hurricanes and Climate Oscillations on Annual Variation in Reproduction in Wet Forest, Puerto Rico.” Ecology, vol. 99, no. 6, June 2018, pp. 1402–10, doi:10.1002/ecy.2236.
