Delphi: A Decision Making Method
Delphi is a decision making method that uses the opinions of experts to solve problems. This process involves a number of rounds that allow for an extensive exchange of ideas and solutions.
Origins and Applications
Originally developed by the RAND Corporation in 1946, delphi is a powerful tool for identifying and prioritizing issues. It can be used in a variety of fields, including business, military, education, and health care.
The Delphi Technique
There are many different types of Delphi technique, but the common theme is that participants agree on a set of questions. The answers from these questions are then interpreted and evaluated by a panel of expert panellists to develop concrete recommendations for policy makers, researchers, or managers.
The Rounds
The first round is unstructured and allows for open discussion amongst experts on a specific topic or problem. The next rounds involve more structured feedback to determine whether the experts feel their ideas have been adequately represented.
Additional Methods
Some studies also include interviews and focus groups in their Delphi process. These types of interviews are a great way to get a deeper understanding of the issue and may provide valuable insights into the issue's complexity or ambiguity.
Benefits and Limitations in Health Sciences
These techniques are used when large-scale observational or randomized and controlled clinical studies are not feasible due to time, cost, or other reasons. They also have the added benefit of generating knowledge that can increase the evidence for a potential intervention's effectiveness or help inform the development of guidelines or regulations (13-15).
In the field of health sciences, Delphi has been used extensively to assess issues such as patient satisfaction with care, patient safety and medical devices and supplies. They have also been used to assess and compare the impact of various health interventions, including pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and exercise programs.
However, there are some limitations to the use of delphi in the health sciences. For example, it is difficult to determine the optimum number of rounds in a Delphi study. In addition, there is a lack of clarity as to when 'consensus' is reached and how consensus is defined.
Cooperation and Analysis
This method requires a lot of coordination and cooperation between a project leader and a group of experts to make sure the right people are selected for each round and that each participant's contribution is considered carefully. The results are then analyzed and a decision made as to whether the findings are ready for publication.
The Increasing Popularity of Delphi in Health Science Research
Using the Delphi method in health science research has become increasingly popular in recent years. This is in part because of the increased emphasis on the need for data-driven and evidence-based research.
For this reason, researchers often prefer to use the Delphi method as a means of conducting research rather than relying on randomized and controlled studies. The method has also been found to be a reliable and flexible research method when compared with other techniques such as 'narrative analysis'.
This is in part because the methods are a highly collaborative and interactive approach to finding a solution, and in part because of the high level of flexibility and reflexivity they can afford to allow. This enables the method to respond to new and developing issues that might arise during a study.
