The current age of information technology has altered every area of social, political and economic lives of people globally. Groundbreaking innovations render traditional means and methods of conducting affairs obsolete by providing current, fast, easy and user-friendly disruptive technologies. The currency industry is one of the areas impacted by information technology as evident in the gradual growth of means of paying for products and services. Specifically, cryptocurrency has gained favor with people who deal in digital transactions. The purpose of this research is to examine, analyze and find out about the Bitcoin form of cryptocurrency and its applicability as an acceptable method of payment in the future. A statement of significance shall demonstrate the relevance of the study followed by the background and history of cryptocurrency with a specific focus on Bitcoin. The literature review section of the research creates a detailed conceptual framework discussing the pricing mechanism, advantages, disadvantages, and impact facilitated by relevant case studies. Finally, the research methodology attempts to answer a research question which enables the study to make recommendations and a conclusion.
Statement of Significance
The study of Bitcoin is centered on two factors namely, understanding the meaning and working of cryptocurrency and the implication and application in the future. Cryptocurrency refers to digital assets that use cryptography to facilitate peer-to-peer transactions without the need of regulators such as a central bank (Hileman, 2017). The introduction of Bitcoin as a method of payment has been received by professional economists with mixed reaction either due to lack of understanding or the possible impact of the approach to centralized methods of payment. Further, given that Bitcoin involves a combination of economics and knowledge of information systems, the knowledge on the subject is the preserve of only a few people. Therefore, the study is essential as an education tool for the masses. The second element of significance revolves the future application of cryptocurrency as a mainstream method of payment. According to Forbes, monetary economics keep changing, and Bitcoin is a critical technology in the future of payments in the world (Lee, 2013). The value of money comes from the declaration by a government or a regulator and Bitcoin challenges government fiat due to the lack of endorsement by any known entity. Given the continued globalization and internationalization of politics, economics, and businesses, Bitcoin shall undoubtedly play a role in determining future methods of payment, warranting the need for a comprehensive study on the subject. The research is only well applicable after an understanding of the background and history of cryptocurrency, specifically Bitcoin.
Research Questions
Given the minimal literature on Bitcoin and its impact on the future of payments and transactions, the study identifies the following research questions to guide the literature review and the research design.
What is Bitcoin and how likely is it to be a commonly accepted method of payment in the future?
How does Bitcoin impact monetary economies with regard to Porter’s five forces model?
What are the political, economic, social, technological, economic and legal benefits of Bitcoin as a future mode of payment?
What are the political, economic, social, technological, economic and legal limitations of Bitcoin as a mode of payment in the future?
Can Bitcoin be an adequate substitute for cash and electronic payments?
Background and History
The development and background of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies come from the conventional understanding of money and its value. Also, the two fundamental elements of economics that provide the context from which cryptocurrency in general developed are centralization and decentralization. Centralization means having one point of control and determinant of the value of money while decentralization is the elimination of regulators and treasury manages to facilitate the direct connection between transacting parties (Tech Target Media, 2018, p.501). Even though cash or money in the bank is the physical proof of having commercial power, money is necessarily a store of values that is only useful because of the bargaining power it accords people (Carstens, 2018, p.2). With the “store of value” factor of money, banks and government regulators have always been the custodians of the said value through giving anyone with money the ability to purchase products and services depending on the amount.
As people embedded more value to money due to the accompanying purchasing power, the phenomenon of treasury centralization arose to manage liquidity, monitor payments, determine the geographic spread of money and control cash flow (Polák and Klusáček, 2010, p.26). For example, in most of the 19th and 20th century, treasury centralization in most countries limited the geographic spread of their money within the nation’s borders. When the world became more interconnected, electronic money became the innovative solution for cross-border transactions. However, business people and liberal economists see regulators as entities of curtailing monetary freedom. The creation of Bitcoin in 2009 by the unidentified person or group known as Satoshi Nakamoto was the first decentralized cryptocurrency without a treasury centralization mechanism offered a reprieve for freedom of payment (Brito and Castillo, 2013, p.3). Nakamoto released the transformative payment mode as an open source software and began a revolution in the world of banking and payments. Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer network that connects people directly eliminating the need for an intermediary. The decentralization offered business people the opportunity to break away from the monetary hegemony and the frustrating bureaucratic ways of treasury centralization (Tech Target Media, 2018, p.501).
Notably, Bitcoin is different from electronic money. While e-money is still under treasury regulation and employs the use of mobile phones and agent networks, Bitcoin is limited to the internet connection, and its value is determined by supply, demand and the trust in the system (Parker, 2014). At this point, the study offers an example of the rationale for Bitcoin payment to distinguish from electronic money transfer. For example, if a father wanted to send $1000 to his daughter who studies overseas over the internet, he would need to use regulators such as PayPal or MasterCard which deducts transaction fee. Bitcoin removed the need for intermediaries by allowing the father to send the $1000 as a computer file with an embedded message (Brito and Castillo, 2013, p.4). However, just as a computer attachment retains a copy from the sender, the Bitcoin system keeps a record of the transaction in a blockchain for matching future payments to eliminate the double-spending.
Since inception in 2009, the development of Bitcoin as a revolutionary virtual currency has been volatile. Policy makers and proponents of centralization shed doubt on the validity of the system while liberal economists support Bitcoin by showing the failures of conventional payment approaches (Parker, 2014). The opposing points of view have led to much literature on the subject of Bitcoin mostly focusing on the identity of the unknown inventor, the advantages, disadvantages, pricing volatility, and impact on the different aspects of life. The following section on literature review further examines the Bitcoin mystery in preparation for the research which will answer the question using primary data.
Literature Review
Satoshi Nakamoto
The first point of the Bitcoin mystery is the unidentified inventor of the cryptocurrency only known by the alias Satoshi Nakamoto. The general inclination is that Nakamoto is a 36-year old Japanese who harnessed his anger for the financial crisis in the world since the new millennium to invent currency (Davis, 2011). As the wave of Bitcoin spread around the globe, cryptography experts and technology commentators developed theories on Nakamoto based on his communications during the release of the software and once again in 2011. For instance, after releasing software with the first fifty Bitcoin, Nakamoto embedded a permanent message “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on the brink of the second bailout for banks.” Along with other extensive online posts (Davis, 2011). The flawlessness of his grammar coupled with language colloquialism such as the use of Briticism in phrases like “bloody hard” and words such as “colour”, “favour” and “modernised” lead most people to believe the inventor is British (L.S, 2015).
With the limited communication from the mysterious inventor, any contact is seriously debunked for clues on the identity of the person, with most being hoaxes. For example, in 2014, the Newsweek magazine identified a man named Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto in California with reason to believe he was the actual Nakamoto (L.S, 2015). Unidentified credible sources later confirmed the story to be an unfounded rumour. The analysis of Nakamoto’s communication indicates that he is most likely a Japanese mathematician, Finnish Sociologist or an Irish student. While some cryptographers deny the identity of Nakamoto, others create profiles claiming to be the inventor. For example, in 2015, Craig Stephen Wright, a security expert form Sidney Australia claimed to be Nakamoto (O'hagan, 2017). However, among those who have been identified as Nakamoto but denied vehemently are American cryptographers Nick Szabo and Hal Finney (L.S, 2015). Given the complicated nature of the Bitcoin code, a sizeable number of technology experts believe the invention was the work of a group of highly proficient computer programmers. The last authentic communication from Nakamoto was in April 2011 when he wrote an email with the words “I HAVE moved on to other things” on the web (L.S, 2015). The study submits that the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto continues to be a mystery worth further research.
Porter’s Analysis of Bitcoin
Porter's Five Forces is a conceptual framework developed by Michael E Porter of Harvard Business School in 1979 to determine the competitive intensity and attractiveness of a new venture in business (Free Management Ebooks, 2013, p.7). The first factor of consideration is the possible threat of new entry of other cryptocurrencies. Even though Bitcoin was the pioneer virtual currency in cryptography, the open-source nature of the blockchain technology enables the invention of alternative modes of virtual payment. The Bank Rate investment website records a minimum of twelve altcoins, the alternative coins, which entered the market since 2009 (Bankrate, 2018). Given that there are few rules regarding the use of open source code, numerous technology companies and individuals took the advantage to develop the cryptocurrencies. Further, the prominence and price explosion of Bitcoin is the primary motivator for companies to build the cryptocurrencies that could be critical to world economies in the future. Blockchain technology is reusable and easily implemented. Examples of altcoins are Ethrium, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, Cardano, Litecoin, NEM, Stella, NEO, IOTA, Dash, Monero, and Tron (Bankrate, 2018).
The entry of altcoins is a threat of substitution for Bitcoin. In fact, while the price of Bitcoin was very high in the first few years after invention, the developments in the market led to prices fluctuations that lowered the value of the precious currency with positive and negative impact on investors. For example, Forbes reported in February 2018 that the sharp price changes for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies shed doubt on the applicability of virtual payment systems in the next twenty years (Mourdoukoutas, 2018). However, given that the investment markets are unpredictable, the possible threat of substituting Bitcoin with better virtual currencies is only limited by the innovative capabilities of cryptographers.
Regardless of the number of altcoins and substitute companies, the power of Bitcoin is in the mining factor and the anonymity of the inventor. The power of a supplier is a significant determinant of a commodity. For example, Satoshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin currency with a limit of 21 million expected to last until 2040 (Brito and Castillo, 2013, p.7). Computer enthusiast engaged in mining as a hobby, but when the acquisition became harder, professionals specialised in the process of solving complex math puzzles for 12.5 Bitcoin every ten minutes. In essence, the power of Bitcoin is in the anonymity of the inventor as well as the provision of near-opaque privacy between transacting parties. The unlimited power of Nakamoto is the determinant of the people who buy Bitcoin.
Before buyers, miners were the central entity of acquiring Bitcoin currency on the web. With limited information and knowledge of the technology, cryptography experts mined endlessly harnessing every opportunity. However, when more people flooded the internet in search of Bitcoin, the power of the miner and the buyer diminished significantly while the genius of Satoshi Nakamoto became clearer. For instance, the last “Satoshi” is set to be mined in 2040. Therefore, the difficulty of harvesting Bitcoin will make it hard to acquire the currency and suppliers will have more control and power over buyers. However, market-related factors such as prices and capitalisation will determine the value of Bitcoin and the influence it gives buyers and suppliers (Hileman and Rauchs, 2017, p.18).
The competitive rivalry in the cryptocurrency sector has developed gradually as the price of Bitcoin kept changing. For example, the hegemony of Bitcoin has diminished significantly as evident from a survey indicating a drop of market capitalisation from 86% in March 2015 to 72% in March 2017. The statistics are evidence of a growing rivalry form competitor currencies such as Monero, which has increased exponentially since 2016 (Hileman and Rauchs, 2017, p.18). The nature of Bitcoin concerning application in the future is understandably confusing due to the confusing developments in figures. For instance, despite the steady fall in price from $1100 to $225 by 2015, Bitcoin payment processor, Bitpay, recorded a surge in the number of merchants who reached 100000 as of 2015 (Cuthbertson, 2015). When Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance conducted the first global cryptocurrency benchmarking study in 2017, there were three million active users of the Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (Hileman, 2017). Some of the companies that accept payment via the currency are Microsoft, Wikipedia, Twitch, Greenpeace, Expedia and PayPal (Cuthbertson, 2015).
Advantages of Bitcoin
In the analysis of the benefits and limitations of using Bitcoin, the study employs the PESTLE framework of analysis to realise the political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental impacts of the disruptive innovation.
Decentralization
The lack of control by any entity or government, not even the inventor, Satoshi Nakamoto has been the principal point of appeal for Bitcoin enthusiasts. The economics of banks exercising unwarranted control over people through intermediary role have changed with the introduction of Bitcoin. If banks and governments cannot control the supply and purchase of the virtual currency, technically, Bitcoin is proof of inflation unlike fiat currency that states manufacture at will (MyBitcoin, 2018). Furthermore, Bitcoin provides an alternative where people can avoid the exorbitant bank fees levied on every transaction. Decentralization is also a political factor given it was the source of inspiration for Nakamoto.
Privacy
Citizens and business people have often accused governments of collecting personal information from agencies and entities such as banks to monitor the public. Bitcoin provides privacy against such invasion in two forms. First, the transacting parties do not meet, and neither are the identities revealed on any platform (MyBitcoin, 2018). Secondly, there is transparency in the privacy because even though the user identifications are hidden, any payment is recorded in a public ledger in the blockchain to make the transaction visible and avoid the possibility of double spending. Bitcoin provides a reprieve for the advocates in the politics of data privacy.
Durability and Portability
Criminal enterprises cannot destroy, counterfeit or damage Bitcoin for lack of physical form. The technology of blockchain and data mining is portable on any geographic scope with a durability period of up to 2040 (Nian and Chuen, 2015, p.19). The portability aspect of Bitcoin is a social advantage given that unlike fiat cash, virtual currency is unlimit on the amount that a person can possess at a given time. Further, the transfer of technology in making altcoins and other methods of virtual currency is a testament to the technological benefit of blockchain technology (Pawluk, 2017, p.5).
Fast Transactions
The only prerequisites for undertaking a transaction using Bitcoin is a computer or a smart device such as a phone, internet connection and the right knowledge. The economic aspect of the current age requires fast transactions, especially when the nature of the business is global. While banks and other regulators have working hours, Bitcoin transactions can occur at any time of day regardless of place and circumstances (MyBitcoin, 2018). Furthermore, even when banks facilitate international money transfers, the processes of authentication are lengthy, but Bitcoin payments typically take a few minutes depending on the internet connection. Fats transactions is an economic benefit.
Reduced Fraud
Reducing fraud is arguably the most significant social benefit of using Bitcoin. The virtual and digital nature of the currency covers any chances of a person manipulating funds without a method of identifying the parties to a transaction (MyBitcoin, 2018). For example, when an individual sends a payment, the receiver cannot manipulate the digital receipt in any way due to lack of identification. The economic benefit of reducing fraud is evident in Bitcoin’s solution to the double spending problem in electronic payments. Double spending refers to a situation where the payer in a digital transaction may use the same digital token to pay another merchant (Chen and Chou, 2014, p.1). Given that every transaction is recorded in the blockchain, every new payment is matched against the ledger to check for the possibility of a duplicate. The system flags a previously used token, and the transaction does not succeed.
Disadvantages of Using Bitcoin
Bitcoin is not widely accepted
The suspect nature of online transactions coupled with limited knowledge of information systems leaves Bitcoin with a low level of acceptability among online businesses and governments. The fact that only a sizeable number of people, roughly three million as of 2017, rely on Bitcoin means the currency is unfeasible for reliance for any compound or long-term business ventures. Furthermore, the majority of people are not aware of the existence of Bitcoin nor the intricate details of how to acquire the digital commodity for use (Stanford University, 2018). The few people with the knowledge do not share to reap the benefits alone, or they share when the information is no longer as valuable, especially in investment opportunities.
Internal Change and Development
The open source nature of Bitcoin as a community project means developers continue to make changes to improve the system with the approval of users on the web (Nian and Chuen, 2015, p.24). Therefore, the single internet outlet means only those with the knowledge and platform of the internet can utilise the virtual currency. Admittedly, the volatile nature of Bitcoin can lead to translation into stocks and bets providing a broader scope of application. However, the lack of absolute certainty on how the technology will develop in the future lowers the commitment of people and businesses to using the currency for all payments.
Volatility
The volatile nature of Bitcoin prices and value is one of the primary reasons investors do not fully commit to the cryptocurrency frenzy. The positive media coverage since between 2009 and 2013 portrayed Bitcoin as the most significant disruptive innovation in monetary economics, thereby attracting investors and technology moguls to buy the currency. However, as any flooding of the market lowers the price of stocks, the value of Bitcoin has dropped steadily since 2013 (Nian and Chuen, 2015, p.24). Consequently, the actual value of Bitcoin as a currency cannot be quantified which prompts investors to change into fiat currency quickly. The limitation of volatility best relates to the research question regarding the future. In essence, if individuals cannot account for the value of a currency, there is a low possibility of adopting the same as a method of payment.
Facilitation of Criminal Activity
While pseudo-anonymity and fast payments are the chief advantages of Bitcoin concerning decentralisation, the same elements have been used to facilitate criminal activity on the web. For example, one of the most prominent criminal cases involving Bitcoin was the black market website, Silk Road, where offenders exchanged illegal drugs and counterfeit passports for Bitcoin (Nian and Chuen, 2015, p.26). Such cases are the premise for most governments’ lack of trust in the cryptocurrency mainly due to lack of a regulator. The University of Manchester also witnesses another Bitcoin-related criminal case where several students under the alias “Breaking Bad Gang” sold drugs worth more than one million dollars on the dark web and went for holidays in Jamaica, Amsterdam and the Bahamas (Dobson, 2018).
The study submits that Bitcoin-related criminal activity is on the rise due to the perceived value of the cryptocurrency coupled with the elusive nature of virtual currency. With promises of acquiring wealth with the fruition of specific periods, people with computer knowledge, most of whom are young and impatient hackers and students, find faster routes of attaining digital assets. For example, four robbers broke into the home of the owner of a digital currency firm, Danny Aston, forcing him to transfer cryptocurrency at gunpoint. As the value of a single Bitcoin reached £8,000 in January, such heists are bound to occur (Diver, 2018). All the limitations and disadvantages mentioned above lead back to the research question on whether Bitcoin is suitable for use in the future. The following section presents a research design in an attempt to answer the research question.
Research Methodology
A research methodology is a component of a study that connects the literature review or conceptual framework to the findings of the researcher to either endorse the empirical evidence or exhibit variance (University Of Southern California, 2018). In the context of this study, the methodology considers the research question that encompasses all others and resonates with the components of the literature review. The central question of research is, how likely is it for Bitcoin to be a commonly accepted method of payment in the future?
Case and Variables
The case and variables of study emanate from the research question. The applicability of Bitcoin as a method of payment in the future is the case aspect of the survey while volatility, price fluctuations, acceptability, internal change and development and centralisation versus decentralisation are the independent variables of consideration in the research design. The use of Bitcoin in the future is the dependent variable of study.
Qualitative Research Techniques
The study employs partly qualitative and quantitative research techniques for the full acquisition of the requisite information to answer the research question. The above conceptual framework in the form of a literature review uses the inductive method of qualitative research by combining data and information from credible sources to form a theory on the applicability of Bitcoin in the future. Besides the inductive technique, a phenomenological approach is also employed in the literature review to explain the meaning, working, benefits and limitations of Bitcoin (Sauro, 2018). The sources of data in the phenomenological research technique, as used in the study, are credible websites, newspapers, and books, commentary by personalities who are proficient on the subject and reports by credible organisations like Forbes, University of Cambridge and learning institutions. The third critical research method for conceptualising secondary data is the grounded theory of qualitative research. The grounded theory explains the significance of an event or, in this cases, a development like Bitcoin (Sauro, 2018). By using research methods like the axial coding technique, the grounded theory approach relates concepts of a subject through inductive and deductive thought to aid in a conclusion. For instance, the different political, economic, social, technological, economic and legal benefits and disadvantages of Bitcoin are contingent in the answering the research question.
Quantitative Research
Given that Bitcoin is a relatively new phenomenon with minimal empirical research, the study also conducts quantitative research to gather raw data to confirm the various concepts from the qualitative part of the study.
Sampling
The experiment involves the random sampling of fifty companies, twenty-five that use Bitcoin and the other group that does not use the cryptocurrency. The test would include two questionnaires where the first “Cryptocurrency Use Questionnaire” determines whether a company uses virtual currency use while the other, “Validity of Bitcoin as a Payment Method” tests whether the CEO approves or disproof the suitability of Bitcoin in the future. Appendices A and B show the questionnaires while C is the metrics of measure. Notably, the CEO is the first point of contact for the research involving the companies but may delegate duties to an IT or economics expert for the questionnaires. Further, the questions are only a precursor for the participants to share their beliefs on the subject and even the attitudes, gestures, and non-verbal responses account in the analysis.
Procedure
All fifty companies take part in the first questionnaire to separate those who use cryptocurrency from that those do not. Companies that demonstrate a level of knowledge below the average of 2.5 form the first group while the others represent those with the knowledge of the subject. The second questionnaire reflects the understanding of the future use of Bitcoin from the two groups which represent most of the global population in unequal proportions. The comparison of results from the two groups shall be subjected to analysis for a deductive conclusion. The proficiency of the researcher is paramount to decide the meaning of responses without bias or prejudice.
Preliminary Results and Implications
From the qualitative aspect of the research as facilitated by the literature review, this study submits that Bitcoin is not likely to be a commonly accepted method of payment in the future. Despite the apparent advantages over conventional systems of banking and economics such as treasury centralisation, the risk of cryptocurrency is too much for global application. The fluctuations in price and value of Bitcoin indicate a degree of unreliability that worsens with the impending deflation due to the fixed status of having only 21 million Bitcoin. However, the preliminary results are subject to confirmation from the quantitative research which gathers raw data from the hypothesis to endorse or disproof the disapproval of Bitcoin as an acceptable method of payment in the future.
Ethical Consideration
The qualitative aspect of the study is limited by the apparent lack of companies and entities that would disclose the honest opinion regarding the future of Bitcoin. Due to the political nature of discussions regarding cryptocurrency, the proposed research is prone to bias due to divulgence of incorrect and inaccurate information intentionally or otherwise. Furthermore, a sample of fifty companies may not adequately indicate the reality of the state of Bitcoin as an acceptable model of payment in the future.
Conclusion and Recommendations
Bitcoin is the leading cryptocurrency in the world since its invention in 2009 by the anonymous person or group only known as Satoshi Nakamoto. The media hype surrounding the digital currency created an interest among investors with companies such as Wikipedia and Microsoft accepting payments in Bitcoin. However, as more people succeeded in mining the digital asset, the price of Bitcoin dropped steadily causing a decline in value. With numerous technological, political, social and legal implications, a comprehensive review of the benefits and disadvantages of Bitcoin reveal glaring anomalies in prices and value, leading to the conclusion that Bitcoin would not be a commonly accepted method of payment in the future. The study recommends detailed qualitative research that aims to endorse of disproof the findings of the literature review. The triangulation of research helps to deepen an understanding of the relatively new concept while still answering pertinent research questions through primary data sources like interviews and questionnaires.
Appendix
Appendix A: The Cryptocurrency Use Questionnaire
Question: What is your level of knowledge regarding each of the following elements of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin?
1 = None
2 = Little
3 = Undecided
4 = Some
5 = Expert
1. _____ Decetralization
2. _____ Centralization
3. _____ Price Fluctuation and Inflation
4. _____ Blockchain Technology
5. _____ Data Mining
6. _____ Digital Tokens
7. _____ Satoshi Nakamoto
8. _____ Value Bitcoins in Dollars and Sterling Pounds
9. _____ Bitcoin Stock Market
10. _____ Pseudoanonymity and Free payment
Appendix B: Validity of Bitcoin as a Payment Method
Check against each of the following questions with the appropriate response?
1 – Strongly disagree
2 - Disagree
3 - Undecided
4 – Agree
5 – Strongly agree
ð I think Bitcoin is a beneficial disruptive technology
ð Most companies would benefit from using Bitcoin over other currencies.
ð I am confident Bitcoin will still be applicable in 20 years
ð I believe the value of Bitcoin will appreciate gradually in ten years
ð Bitcoin is will be an acceptable means of payment in the future.
Appendix C: Score Chart
Score
Bitcoin Literacy Level
Applicability in Future Payments
1
None
Not Applicable
2
Little
Low level Applicability
3
Medium
Moderate Level Applicability
4
Some
High Level Applicability
5
Expert
Significant Level Applicability
References
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Carstens, A. (2018). Money in the digital age: what role for central banks?. [online] Bank of International Settlements. Available at: https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp180206.pdf [Accessed 7 May 2018].
Chen, Y. and Chou, J. (2014). Cryptanalysis on “Secure untraceable off-line electronic cash system”. [online] National Tsing Hua University. Available at: https://eprint.iacr.org/2014/063.pdf [Accessed 7 May 2018].
Cuthbertson, A. (2015). Bitcoin now accepted by 100,000 merchants worldwide. [online] International Business Times. Available at: https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/bitcoin-now-accepted-by-100000-merchants-worldwide-1486613 [Accessed 7 May 2018].
Davis, J. (2011). The Crypto-Currency Bitcoin And Its Mysterious Inventor. [online] The New Yorker. Available at: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/10/10/the-c
