The Importance of Logic in Actuarial Science

Inductive Validity


Inductive validity involves inferences where the where the premises provide a basis for the conclusion but despite the existence of true premises in certain situations, the conclusion derived still turn out as false. To consider an argument as deductively valid then its conclusion must no factual claim to the contrary at least in an implicit way as made by its premises.


Inductive Probability


On the other hand, inductive probability associated with an argument is one where the conclusion is true under the condition that the premises are true as well. To determine the inductive probability of an argument a relation must be occur between its stipulated premises and resulting conclusion. This is not by the likelihood of its premises being true by themselves or the likelihood of its conclusion being true by itself.


Strength of Inductive Arguments


To determine the strength of an argument in inductive terms, the conclusions drawn from it must make factual claims that surpass the information provide in the premises. Evaluation of inductive strength encompasses how improbable it is for the conclusion to be false while the premises are true. It should also have a high inductive probability and not deductively valid. Is it important for students of actuarial science to study philosophy? Will a course in logic help them make better decisions in determination of appropriate reference classes? When trying to apply the concepts of logic in personal life, most of these decisions and conclusions are of an intuitive nature. Intuition could force the brain to make biased conclusions because it happens automatically in an almost reflex action. With the surge in fraud and con artists on the internet who swindle individuals of their earnings with a single click, applying logic can help prevent heavy losses.

Works Cited


Priest, Graham. Logic: A Very Short Introduction. Vol. 29. Oxford University Press, 2017.


Skyrms, Brian. "Choice and Chance: An Introduction to Inductive Logic." (1967).

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