The current age of information technology has altered every area of social, political and economic lives of people globally. Groundbreaking innovations make traditional methods of conducting affairs obsolete by providing current, fast, easy and user-friendly technologies. The currency industry is one of the areas impacted by information technology this can be seen via the gradual growth of paying for products and services in advanced methods. Quite specifically, cryptocurrency has gained favour with people who deal in digital transactions.
Cryptocurrency refers to digital assets that use cryptography (the art of writing or solving codes) to facilitate peer-to-peer transactions without the need of regulators such as a central bank (Hileman, 2017). The value of money comes from the declaration by a government or a regulator and Bitcoin challenges government command due to the lack of sanction by any known entity. Given the continued globalization and internationalization of politics, economics, and businesses, Bitcoin shall undoubtedly play a role in determining future methods of payment, warranting the need for a comprehensive study on the subject.
Terms of reference
The researcher interviewed managers of companies that used Bitcoin and other currencies for transactions; 40% who used Bitcoin while 60% have greatly accepted other forms of digital currency. The qualitative aspect of the study is limited by the lack of companies and entities that would disclose the honest opinion regarding the future of Bitcoin. Due to the political nature of discussions regarding cryptocurrency, the proposed research is prone to bias due to divulgence of incorrect and inaccurate information intentionally or otherwise. Furthermore, a sample of fifty companies may not indicate to an acceptable extent the reality of the state of Bitcoin as an acceptable model of payment in the future. All references have been included in the project of where information was obtained from giving credit to the authors of that data.
1.1 Background of the Study
The development and background of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies come from the conventional understanding of money and its value. The two fundamental elements of economics that provided the context from which cryptocurrency was born are centralization and decentralization. Centralization means having one point of control and the final value of the money, while decentralization is the elimination of regulators and treasury managers to facilitate the direct connection between transacting parties (Tech Target Media, 2018, p.501).
As people gave more value to money due to the accompanying purchasing power, the phenomenon of treasury centralization arose to manage liquidity, monitor payments, determine the geographic spread of money and control cash flow (Polák and Klusáček, 2010, p. 26). When the world became more interconnected, electronic money became the innovative solution for cross-border transactions. However, business people and liberal economists see regulators as people who deprive monetary freedom. The creation of Bitcoin in 2009 by the unidentified pseudonymous (written under a false name) person known as Satoshi Nakamoto was the first decentralized cryptocurrency without a treasury centralization mechanism offering an absolute for freedom of payment (Brito and Castillo, 2013, p. 3). Nakamoto released the transformative payment mode as an open source software and began a revolution in the world of banking and payments. Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer network that connects people directly eliminating the need for an intermediary. The decentralization offered business people the opportunity to break away from the monetary leadership and the frustrating bureaucratic ways of treasury centralization (Tech Target Media, 2018, p. 501).
Notably, while e-money is still under treasury regulation and employs the use of mobile phones and agent networks, Bitcoin is limited to the internet connection, and its value is determined by supply, demand and the trust in the system (Parker, 2014). For example, if a father wanted to send $1000 to his daughter who studies overseas over the internet, he would need to use regulators such as PayPal or MasterCard which deduct transaction fee. Bitcoin removed the need for intermediaries by allowing the father to send the $1000 as a computer file with an embedded message (Brito and Castillo, 2013, p. 4). However, just as a computer attachment retains a copy from the sender, the Bitcoin system keeps a record of the transaction in a blockchain for matching future payments to eliminate the double-spending.
Since its formation in 2009, the development of Bitcoin as a revolutionary virtual currency has been volatile. Advocates of centralization shed doubt on the validity of the system while liberal economists support Bitcoin by showing the failures of conventional payment approaches (Parker, 2014). The opposing points of view have led to much research on the subject of Bitcoin, mostly focusing on the identity of the unknown inventor, the advantages, disadvantages, pricing volatility, and impact on the different aspects of life.
1.2 Research Questions
Given the minimal literature on Bitcoin and its impact on the future of payments and transactions, the study identifies the following research questions to guide the literature review and the research proposal.
i. What is Bitcoin and how likely is it to be a commonly accepted method of payment in the future?
ii. How does Bitcoin impact monetary economies with regard to Porter’s five forces model?
iii. What are the political, economic, social, technological, economic and legal benefits of Bitcoin as a future mode of payment?
iv. What are the political, economic, social, technological, economic and legal limitations of Bitcoin as a mode of payment in the future?
v. Can Bitcoin be an acceptable substitute for cash and electronic payments?
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
A review of the literature looks at the past studies that have been done by other researchers relating to bitcoin cryptocurrency. The chapter is divided into four sections. The first section seeks to provide a basis for understanding the origin and innovators behind the bitcoin currency. The second section provides an analysis of the attractiveness of the cryptocurrency market using Porter’s Framework of Industry Analysis. The third section is an examination of the external business environment using the PESTEL framework. Lastly, the forth section provides an analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the bitcoin.
2.1 Satoshi Nakamoto
The first point of the Bitcoin mystery is the unidentified inventor of the cryptocurrency only known as Satoshi Nakamoto. As the wave of Bitcoin spread around the globe, cryptography experts and technology commentators developed theories on Nakamoto based on his communications during the release of the software in 2009 and once again in 2011. For example, after releasing software with the first fifty Bitcoin, Nakamoto embedded a permanent message “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on the brink of the second bailout for banks,” along with other extensive online posts (Davis, 2011). The flawlessness of his grammar along with his inappropriate phrases such as the use of Briticism in phrases like “bloody hard” and words such as “colour”, “favour” and “modernized” lead most people to believe the inventor is British (L.S, 2015).
With the limited communication from the mysterious inventor, any contact is seriously challenged for clues on the identity of the person, with most being hoaxes. For example, in 2014, the Newsweek magazine identified a man named Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto in California with reason to believe he was the actual Nakamoto (L.S, 2015). Unidentified credible sources later confirmed the story to be an unfounded rumour. The analysis of Nakamoto’s communication indicates that he is most likely a Japanese mathematician, Finnish Sociologist or an Irish student. While some cryptographers deny the identity of Nakamoto, others create profiles claiming to be the inventor. For example, in 2015, Craig Stephen Wright, a security expert form Sidney Australia claimed to be Nakamoto (O'hagan, 2017). However, among those who have been identified as Nakamoto but denied this title is American cryptographers Nick Szabo and Hal Finney (L.S, 2015). Given the complicated nature of the Bitcoin code, a sizeable number of technology experts believe the invention was the work of a group of highly proficient computer programmers. The last authentic communication from Nakamoto was in April 2011 when he wrote an email with the words “I HAVE moved on to other things” on the web (L.S, 2015). The study submits that the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto continues to be a mystery needing further research.
2.2 Porters Framework Analysis of Cryptocurrency
Porter's Five Forces is a framework used to analyze the cometitveness and attractiveness of an industry (Free Management Ebooks, 2013, p.7). The first factor of consideration is the possible threat of new entry of other cryptocurrencies. Even though Bitcoin was the pioneer virtual currency in cryptography, the open-source nature of the blockchain technology enables the invention of alternative modes of virtual payment. The Bank Rate investment website records a minimum of twelve altcoins, the alternative coins, which entered the market since 2009 (Bankrate, 2018). Given that there are few rules regarding the use of open source code, numerous technology companies and individuals took the advantage to develop the cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, the prominence and price explosion of Bitcoin is the primary motivator for companies to build the cryptocurrencies that could be critical to world economies in the future. Blockchain technology is reusable and easily implemented. Examples of altcoins are Ethrium, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, Cardano, Litecoin, NEM, Stella, NEO, IOTA, Dash, Monero, and Tron (Bankrate, 2018).
The entry of altcoins is a threat of substitution for Bitcoin. While the price of Bitcoin was very high in the first few years after invention, the developments in the market led to price fluctuations that lowered the value of the currency with positive and negative impact on investors. For example, Forbes reported in February 2018 that the sharp price changes for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies shed doubt on the applicability of virtual payment systems for the next twenty years (Mourdoukoutas, 2018). Whereas, given that the investment markets are unpredictable, the possible threat of substituting Bitcoin with better virtual currencies is only limited by the innovative capabilities of cryptographers.
Regardless of the number of altcoins and substitute companies, the power of Bitcoin is in the mining factor and the anonymity of the inventor. The power of a supplier is a significantly determined by what they have to offer. For example, Satoshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin currency with a limit of 21 million expected to last until 2040 (Brito and Castillo, 2013, p.7). Computer enthusiasts engaged in mining as a hobby, but when the acquisition became harder, professionals specialized in the process of solving complex math puzzles for 12.5 Bitcoin every ten minutes. The power of Bitcoin is in the anonymity of the inventor as well as the provision of near-opaque privacy between transacting parties. The power of Nakamoto is determined by the people who buy Bitcoin.
Before buyers, miners were the central entity of acquiring Bitcoin currency on the web. With limited information and knowledge of the technology, cryptography experts mined endlessly harnessing every opportunity. However, when more people flooded the internet in search of Bitcoin, the power of the miner and the buyer diminished significantly while the genius of Satoshi Nakamoto became clearer. For instance, the last “Satoshi” is set to be mined in 2040. Therefore, the difficulty of harvesting Bitcoin will make it hard to acquire the currency and suppliers will have more control and power over buyers. Market-related factors such as prices and capitalization will also determine the value of Bitcoin and the influence it gives buyers and suppliers (Hileman and Rauchs, 2017, p.18).
The competitive rivalry in the cryptocurrency sector has developed gradually as the price of Bitcoin kept changing. For example, the dominance of Bitcoin has diminished significantly as evident from a survey indicating a drop of market capitalization from 86% in March 2015 to 72% in March 2017. The statistics are evidence of a growing rivalry from competitor currencies such as Monero, which has increased exponentially since 2016 (Hileman and Rauchs, 2017, p.18). The nature of Bitcoin concerning application in the future is confusing due to the confusing developments in figures. For instance, despite the steady fall in price from $1100 to $225 by 2015, Bitcoin payment processor, Bitpay, recorded a surge in the number of merchants who reached 100000 as of 2015 (Cuthbertson, 2015). When Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance conducted the first global cryptocurrency benchmarking study in 2017, there were three million active users of the Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (Hileman, 2017). Some of the companies that accept payment via the currency are Microsoft, Wikipedia, Twitch, Greenpeace, Expedia and PayPal (Cuthbertson, 2015).
2.3 Examination of the Cryptocurrency Industry in regards to Bitcoin, using the PESTEL Analysis
PESTEL analysis has been widely accepted by industries as a framework for the analysis of macro-environmental factors that affect businesses. The PESTEL analysis informs this study by exploring the political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal factors that impact the cryptocurrency industry; with a focus on Bitcoin.
2.3.1 Political Impact of Bitcoin
Political factors explain the political climate of a country and how it affects the business development. Uncertainty and instability in the political climate forces individuals to take measures that protect their wealth from destruction and loss. Individuals use Bitcoins to hedge against the price movements in times of political instability. Bitcoin proves a safe investment since political factors insignificantly affect the prices of Bitcoin. After the 2015 economic crisis in Greece, there was an increase in the buying of bitcoins by the citizens who wished to protect their wealth. Similarly, there was an increase in the price of the Bitcoin in 2016 by over 65% when Britain sought to leave the European Union. As a result, there was a decrease in the value of the British Pound. Additionally, there was a steep increase in the Bitcoin prices in the US during the 2016 election period.
2.3.2 Economic Impact of Bitcoin
Economic factors seek to identify the effect of economic metrics on the Bitcoin prices and value. The economic metrics include the stock market, taxes, interest rates and consumer confidence levels. There is no regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market, taxes and interest rates cannot be levied on the Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency market is decentralized. Decentralization is the lack of control by any entity or government, not even the inventor, Satoshi Nakamoto has been the first point of appeal and application for Bitcoin enthusiasts. The economics of banks exercising unwarranted control over people through intermediary roles have changed with the introduction of Bitcoin. Unlike sanctioned cash, virtual currency is unlimited on the amount that a person can possess at a given time. Furthermore, the transfer of technology in making altcoins and other methods of virtual currency is a testament to the technological benefit of blockchain technology (Pawluk, 2017, p. 5).
The volatile nature of Bitcoin prices and value is one of the primary reasons investors do not fully commit to the cryptocurrency frenzy. The positive media coverage since between 2009 and 2013 portrayed Bitcoin as the most significant disruptive innovation in monetary economics, thereby attracting investors and technology tycoons to buy the currency. However, as any flooding of the market lowers the price of stocks, the value of Bitcoin has dropped steadily since 2013 (Nian and Chuen, 2015, p. 24). Consequently, the actual value of Bitcoin as a currency cannot be quantified which prompts investors to change into centralized currency quickly. The limitation of volatility best relates to the research question regarding the future. If individuals cannot account for the value of a currency, there is a low possibility of adopting the same as a method of payment. The graph below shows the fluctuations in the price of the bitcoin from the time of creation in 2009 till June 12th, 2017. From the graph, the volatility of the Bitcoin can be seen with the major increases general increases with constant low-level decreases between 2015-2017.
Graph 1: Change in Bitcoin Value (2009-2017)
2.3.3 Social Impact of Bitcoin
Changes in the social arena across the world are factors that ought to be considered in the cryptocurrency industry. Technology has affected the lifestyle of individuals. Security, privacy and culture of people are affected by cryptocurrency. Citizens and business people have often accused governments of collecting personal information from agencies and entities such as banks to monitor the public. Bitcoin provides privacy against such invasion in two forms. First, the transacting parties do not meet, and neither are the identities revealed on any platform (MyBitcoin, 2018). Secondly, there is transparency in the privacy because even though the user identifications are hidden, any payment is recorded in a public ledger in the blockchain to make the transaction visible and avoid the possibility of double spending. Bitcoin provides a way out for the advocates in the politics of data privacy. Criminal enterprises cannot destroy, counterfeit or damage Bitcoin for lack of physical form. The technology of blockchain (where Bitcoin and cryptocurrency transactions are recorded) and data mining (examining large pre-existing databases in order to generate new information) is portable on any geographic scope with a durability period of up to 2040 (Nian and Chuen, 2015, p. 19).
2.3.4 Technological Impact of Bitcoin
Technology advancement across the globe has led to the successful adoption of cryptocurrency. Internet technology and social media platforms have contributed to the spread adoption of these digital currencies. MyBitcoin (2018) asserts that the only requirements for undertaking a transaction using Bitcoin are a computer or a smart device such as a phone, internet connection and the right knowledge. The economic aspect of the current age requires fast transactions, especially when the nature of the business is global. While banks and other regulators have working hours, Bitcoin transactions can occur at any time of day regardless of place and circumstances. They further add that even when banks facilitate international money transfers, the processes of authentication are lengthy, but Bitcoin payments typically take a few minutes depending on the internet connection. Fast transactions are an economic benefit.
2.3.5 Environmental Impact of Bitcoin
Environmentalists have argued on the possible environmental impact by Bitcoin. Data centres where cryptocurrency is mined consume high amounts of energy (Bitcoin Boom, 2018). According to the Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index, Bitcoin consumes approximately 32 terawatts of energy every year, which is enough power for three million households. Comparingly, the processing of Visa transactions yearly, approximated to be billions, consumes power equivalent to 50,000 households.
Further, arguments have been raised on the future demands of power to generate more Bitcoin as the demand grows yearly. However, Bitcoin miners have argued that the environmental impact on Bitcoin mining and the extraction of natural resources as oil tally. Further, they have defended by arguing that environmental friendly sources of power are being used for Bitcoin processing such as the Vienna-based Hydro-Miner; that uses hydroelectric power.
2.3.6 Legal Impact of Bitcoin
Regulatory bodies and governments around the world have had to respond to the wide acceptance of the Bitcoin. The lack of the regulation on Bitcoin in tax systems and other laws is an implication to the government to come up with laws that govern the mining, ownership, privacy concerns and other effects that Bitcoin could have on citizens. Reducing fraud is arguably the most significant social benefit of using Bitcoin. The virtual and digital nature of the currency covers any chances of a person manipulating funds without a method of identifying the parties to a transaction (MyBitcoin, 2018). For example, when an individual sends a payment, the receiver cannot manipulate the digital receipt in any way due to lack of identification. The economic benefit of reducing fraud is evident in Bitcoin’s solution to the double spending problem in electronic payments. Double spending refers to a situation where the payer in a digital transaction may use the same digital token to pay another merchant (Chen and Chou, 2014, p.1). Given that every transaction is recorded in the blockchain, every new payment is matched against the ledger to check for the possibility of a duplicate. The system flags a previously used token, and the transaction fails.
While pseudo-anonymity and fast payments are the chief advantages of Bitcoin concerning decentralization, the same elements have been used to facilitate criminal activity on the web. For example, one of the most prominent criminal cases involving Bitcoin was the black-market website, Silk Road, where offenders exchanged illegal drugs and counterfeit passports for Bitcoin (Nian and Chuen, 2015, p.26). Such cases are the premise for most governments’ lack of trust in the cryptocurrency mainly due to lack of a regulator. The University of Manchester also witnesses another Bitcoin-related criminal case where several students under the alias “Breaking Bad Gang” sold drugs worth more than one million dollars on the dark web and went for holidays in Jamaica, Amsterdam and the Bahamas (Dobson, 2018).
The study reveals that Bitcoin-related criminal activity is on the rise due to the perceived value of the cryptocurrency coupled with the cryptic nature of virtual currency. With promises of acquiring wealth within specific periods, people with computer knowledge, most of whom are young and impatient hackers and students, who find faster routes of attaining digital assets. For example, four robbers broke into the home of the owner of a digital currency firm, Danny Aston, forcing him to transfer cryptocurrency at gunpoint. As the value of a single Bitcoin reached £8,000 in January, such heists are bound to occur (Diver, 2018). All the limitations and disadvantages mentioned above lead back to the research question on whether Bitcoin is suitable for use in the future. The following section presents a research design to answer the research question.
2.4 Advantages, Disadvantages and Implications of Bitcoin.
Cryptocurrencies have gained attention across the world; facilitated by social media and internet technologies. However, there is limited knowledge on the processes to ownership of these cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin provides an alternative where people can avoid the pricey bank fees charged on transactions. The suspect nature of online transactions coupled with limited knowledge of information systems leaves Bitcoin with a low level of acceptability among online businesses and governments. The fact that only a sizeable number of people, roughly three million as of 2017, rely on Bitcoin means the currency is unfeasible for reliance for any compound or long-term business ventures. Furthermore, most people are not aware of the existence of Bitcoin nor the intricate details of how to acquire the digital commodity for use (Stanford University, 2018). The few people with the knowledge do not share this knowledge rather keep it for them and use it accordingly, or they share when the information is no longer as valuable, especially in investment opportunities.
The open source nature of Bitcoin as a community project means developers continue to make changes to improve the system with the approval of users on the web (Nian and Chuen, 2015, p. 24). Therefore, the single internet outlet means only those with the knowledge and platform of the internet can utilize the virtual currency. Admittedly, the volatile nature of Bitcoin can lead to translation into stocks and bets providing a broader scope of application. However, the lack of absolute certainty on how the technology will develop in the future lowers the commitment of people and businesses to using the currency for all payments. Companies and individuals are tasked with the decision as to whether to accept Bitcoins. Governments and other policymakers are tasked with the responsibility of accepting Bitcoins in their countries. As a result, laws and regulations ought to be designed to control the use of the Bitcoin.
3.0 Research Methodology
A research methodology is a component of a study that connects the literature review or conceptual framework to the findings of the researcher to either approve based on evidence or exhibit variance (University of Southern California, 2018). In the context of this study, the methodology considered the research question that encompasses all others and associates with the components of the literature review. The central question of research was: how likely is it for Bitcoin to be a commonly accepted method of payment in the future?
3.1 Qualitative Research Techniques
The study includes qualitative research techniques for the full acquisition of the necessary information to answer the research question based on the interview conducted. The above conceptual framework in the form of a literature review uses the inductive method of qualitative research by combining data and information from credible sources to form a theory on the applicability of Bitcoin in the future. Besides the inductive technique, a phenomenological approach is also employed in the literature review to explain the meaning, working, benefits and limitations of Bitcoin (Sauro, 2018). The sources of data in the phenomenological research technique, as used in the study, are credible websites, newspapers, and books, commentary by personalities who have knowledge on the subject and reports by credible organizations like Forbes, University of Cambridge and learning institutions. The third critical research method for obtaining and analyzing secondary data is the grounded theory of qualitative research. The grounded theory explains the significance of an event or, in this case, a development like Bitcoin (Sauro, 2018). By using research methods like the axial coding technique, the grounded theory approach relates concepts of a subject through inductive and deductive thought to aid in a conclusion. For instance, the different political, economic, social, technological, economic and legal benefits and disadvantages of Bitcoin are contingent in the answering of the research question.
Interviews were also conducted to aid n collection of data regarding the knowledge of Bitcoin by managers and the future thought bout Bitcoin use. Choice of managers is informed by the fact that they are the key decision makers on the technology that their companies can use.
3.4 Ethical Consideration
According to Shamoo and Resnick (2009), it is important to adhere to ethical norms in research because this promotes the aims of research such as knowledge and truth. The data collected for this study is used for academic purposes only. Confidentiality of the respondents was maintained by ensuring they remained anonymous in analysis and presentation the study results. Moreover, the participation of the respondents was confirmed by calling to obtain consent and schedule na appointment for the interview.
4.0 Results and Discussion
From the qualitative aspect of the research as facilitated by the literature review, this study reveals that Bitcoin is not likely to be a commonly accepted method of payment in the future. Despite the apparent advantages over conventional systems of banking and economics such as treasury centralization, the risk of cryptocurrency is too much for global application. The fluctuations in price and value of Bitcoin indicate a degree of unreliability that worsens with the continuous deflation due to the fixed status of having only 21 million Bitcoin.
The results from interviews conducted report mixed findings on the perception that managers have on Bitcoin and its future prospects as a transaction tool. Results reveal that most managers agree that there is technical infrastructure that supports the use of Bitcoin as a future transaction tool. Further enquiry revealed that the internet and mobile technology are the major facilitating conditions that enable Bitcoin use.
Managers have argued the Bitcoin technology is complex to understand which makes it unfavorable for adoption. However, they contend that if the technology on Bitcoin s simplified, they will adopt the digital currency. Some disagree that the governments and regulatory bodies will accept Bitcoin as a financial tool citing that the difficulty in regulation and its decentralization as the contributing factors to non-absorption in the financial market. Moreover, most managers argue that Bitcoin have advantages that surpass the environmental impact it bears.
5.0 Conclusion and Recommendations
Bitcoin is the leading cryptocurrency in the world since its invention in 2009 by the anonymous person or group only known as Satoshi Nakamoto. The media hype surrounding the digital currency created an interest among investors with companies such as Wikipedia and Microsoft accepting payments in Bitcoin. However, as more people succeeded in mining the digital asset, the price of Bitcoin dropped steadily causing a decline in value. With numerous technological, political, social and legal implications, a comprehensive review of the benefits and disadvantages of Bitcoin reveal glaring anomalies in prices and value, leading to the conclusion that Bitcoin would not be a commonly accepted method of payment in the future. Further research is recommended on the likelihood of acceptance and incorporation of Bitcoin by governments into their financial regulation framework, and the effect it would have on their physical currencies.
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