The results from the midterm election clearly show that the Democrats had rather good chances from the beginning, contrary to what they initially assumed. The election was not truly a ‘blue wave’, which means the achievement of a strong Democratic majority in the House, since the Democrats did not perform as expected, considering the negative image of the possibility of Donald Trump’s presidency. Results from the elections have implications on the future political environment and the outcomes of the 2020 general elections. The predictions of the future results made Trump rather vulnerable, with key members of his 2016 coalition, starting with educated women voters, failing to make him win the midterm. This situation could be connected to his current policies that place their focus heavily on immigration, when the voters are more concerned about healthcare.
The aim of this paper is to interpret the recent midterm elections as based on the specific, real examples. The paper will also examine Donald Trump’s chances at re-election and general statistics of seat gain in the House as well as Senate.
Even though Democrats succeeded in retaking the House of Representatives from the Republican control, the expected “blue wave” did not unfold as expected. The 2018 midterm elections resulted in the victory for the Democrats who managed to retake congressional seats held by the Republicans in order to gain more control of the House. While the Democrats won the popular vote over the Republicans in House by a margin of 7.1 percent, not many seats were gained as a result. This 2018 election has been viewed by the public as a referendum on Trump, which he has lost it to the Democrats.
Traditionally, the party at the White House has always lost in midterms, and Donald Trump, being currently as unpopular as he is, gave Democrats competitive advantage (Golshan no pag.). The Democrats could not easily win the 2018 midterm election, and the blue wave enabled them to regain 23 seats previously held by the Republican Party (Golshan no pag.). Majority of Americans together with a considerable number of Democrats assumed that Trump could not win the midterm due to the fact that he was unpopular among the masses and could not win in the Congress. The Democrats were only able to make considerable gains in the House and in reality lost ground in the Senate.
The outcome of the 2018 midterm congressional elections has many implications for the American politics in the immediate future. However, Republicans maintain that President Donald Trump defied conventional thinking and retain the seat of presidency. Parties of first time incumbent president have always lost seats in the House as well as in both chambers (Siddiqui no pag.). While the name of the president was not in the ballot, the overall scope of the elections and the issues raised by the Democratic party such as the economy, health care, and foreign policy make them a referendum on the incumbent president.
Situation where an incumbent has not won in a midterm has only been broken by a first-term president three times since the Second World War. In 1962, The Democrats under the leadership of President John F. Kennedy lost four seats in the house; however, they managed to regain three seats in the Senate (Siddiqui no pag.). The second was when the Richard Nixon’s Republican Party lost a dozen seats in the House but gained two seats in the Senate. It was only in 2002, following the events of 9nt September that rallied the country to support George W. Bush, as the incumbent’s party garnered strength in both houses of Congress at a first midterm election (McCarthy no pag.). Only such unpredictable events have the ability to change the contours of history. Additionally, the gains by the Republicans were relatively modest with only eight additional seats in the House and one more in the Senate.
One conclusion to draw from this midterm is that Democratic party underperformed. In addition, the incumbents who came before Trump and whose approval ratings were not nearly as low as his experienced a remarkable defeat in their first midterm elections. To be precise, the Republicans suffered substantial losses in 2018, while the Democrats delivered the results that no one would expect in the normal course of political events (McCarthy no pag.). The Democrats should find more ways to convince the electorate that they support any good course. Donald Trump, through his administration, has been willing to traverse areas where nobody else has dared venturing.
If the Democrats abide by the political strategies that cleared a way for them the house this year while plausibly keeping the Trump’s administration accountable, they will stand a favorable chance at converting their 2018 victory into a durable and productive coalition (McCarthy no pag.). The Democrats have always unapologetically underestimated the potential of Donald Trump while at the overestimating others’ detest for his administration. If the Democrats desisted from simply attacking Trump and instead focused on achieving a better future on their own as well as welcome the working class home, they would easily win the 2020 elections. The main problem would only arise when the Democrats are given a choice with the Republicans to pass key legislations such as immigration reform bill that will demand them to accede to some of Trump’s demands such as building a wall along the Mexican border.
However, if the Democrats attempt to defeat Trump in the coming elections by applying similar tactics, including extremism, they will definitely lose ground two years from now. The Democrats should not appear as opposing to the policies of the Trump administration as this could make some people view them as pro-development. Trumpism only needs to be defeated through an election. At the moment, it would be hard to predict the outcome of the 2020 election, but there is a possibility for the Democrats to win the elections. However, this will also depend on how they handle various policies with the power they currently have in the House.
Works Cited
Golshan, Tara. “Why Wasn’t The Blue Wave Bigger?” Vox. https://www.vox.com/2018/11/7/18041006/midterm-election-results-democrat-win-house-gerrymander. Accessed 19 November 2018 2018.
McCarthy, Tom. “What The Midterms Can Teach The Democrats About Winning In 2020.” The Gurdian. 16 November, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/16/democrats-midterms-results-lessons-2020-presidential-election. Accessed 19 November 2018.
Siddiqui, Sabrina. “The Democratic Blue Wave Was Real.” The Gurdian. 17, Nov, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/16/the-democratic-blue-wave-was-real. Accessed 19 November 2018.
