The Inevitable Fall of China

China is currently occupying the global stage as an economic powerhouse, the culmination of years of political and economic reforms. The success of the republic can be traced back to its recovery from previous civil wars and confrontations with neighboring Japan, during which the founding leader, Mao Zedong, officially established the People's Republic of China. The transformative leadership of Mao and his successors has modernized China from an agrarian society through a system of political and economic reforms. On the economic front, China embraced a ""socialist market economy,"" which has drawn international investors, supported the advancement of private enterprises, and boosted the country's stock market performance.  This development, coupled with the institution of a totalitarian political system, has ensured the China's rise (Melanie 407). However, the country faces serious internal problems in governance and policy-making, political economy and development, and participative representation that could potentially lead to its collapse like other authoritarian regimes.
Foremost, China's prominence as a world power could decline to its reluctance to cede its authoritarian socialist system of governance. Indeed, China has consistently maintained a tight grip on internal political affairs before and after the inception of the Peoples' Republic of China. For instance, Mao Zedong's era was characterized by the suppression of views that contradicted the ruling party's political ideology. Mao's rule fostered a culture of enforcing social consent to the ruling party through the elimination of opponents and the advancement of socialist ideas of an authorization system of government ("The Coming Collapse: Authoritarians In China And Russia Face An Endgame"). Such political control is still apparent in contemporary China as evidenced by the government's ban on social media as a means of controlling society's political ideologies. The state of affairs, however, is such that China's exposure to the global community has encouraged the Chinese people to express dissenting political opinions more openly (King et al. 322) hence challenging the principle of absolute control. Therefore, there exists a real possibility of that radical political reform similar to the Arab Spring is possible in the foreseeable future.
Regarding governance, another internal problem threatening the stability of China is the Hukou system. According to Afridi et al. (33), the Hukou system is a governance policy which advocates that all Chinese households be registered with the government. With an origin in ancient China, the system involves the recording of all information that could identify individual and details their areas of residence. It is also further observed that the system is a form of social stratification in that it conspicuously differentiates people as either urban or rural dwellers (A, Scott). The system also functions as the basis upon which the Chinese government regulates the allocation of resources with urban areas receiving more investments and subsidies. Although the system has successfully managed to check migration into urban areas, it could potentially result in the collapse of China's social system as depicted in The Last Train Home. For instance, the yearly migrations from rural to urban centers across China could fracture families like Zheng's family in the movie. The cohesiveness of a nation is arguably rooted in the stability of the family unit. If policy makers continue to tolerate the damaging effects of the Hukou system, then there exists the potential that in the long term China's social system may collapse and affect the Republic on the larger scale.
China's burgeoning middle class could also pose significant administrative challenges for China's ruling party which has been successful because of its tight social control. However, the successful governance and economic prosperity have increased the financial power of its population and the attendant problem of institutionalized corruption (Melanie 441). The booming middle class has also become more aware of more conscious of the country's political situation and could increase pressure on the government to make social-political reforms. For instance, the educated middle class could begin demanding better governance from the country's leadership given that corruption in China has peaked owing to its economic growth. However, the nature of the ruling parties in China since its inception is such it consistently demonstrates a conservative approach to issues and is hence likely to suppress anti-government protest (King et al. 320). Such action could potentially set the stage for civil unrest which could have adverse in a country with the world' largest population. If such civil unrest resulting from the unrealized demand of citizens, the implication is that the government could collapse.
Thirdly, China could collapse due to its unsustainable economic system. Following the formation of the People's Republic of China, the country embarked on a mission of modernization which has transformed it into a major global manufacturer of cheap goods whose exports has improved its GDP (Cai, Fang and Yang Lu 16). Despite the enormous success achieved by shifting into manufacturing goods for export, the above caution that China faces the challenge of declining economic returns. The argument is that the system has been exploited to its maximum potential meaning that no further growth can be expected from it. Therefore, Cai, Fang and Yang Lu (23) recommend a shift in economic policy to encourage consumer spending and domestic investment rather than seeking growth through exports. China has the potential to implement such change given the fact that household consumption constitutes a small part of its GDP with enormous room for improvement. However, the problem is that a change in the economic system would require a similarly disruptive change in government structures. In this context, Cai, Fang and Yang Lu (15) attribute China's economic inflexibility to several factors. The state owns the largest companies which are also big employers, and the government is highly bureaucratic. These are impediments to the long-term growth of the China's economy. For one, the monopoly of government-owned financial corporations discourages healthy competition hence denying the Chinese market a pool of diversified products which only serves to suppress innovative technological advancement. Similarly, China is known for its overly bureaucratic government system which only functions to discourage foreigners from making investments in the country. According to Cai, Fang and Yang Lu (16), such protectionist economic policies are unsustainable for China in particular against the background of its exhausted export-centered system.
Another internal problem that may lead to the collapse of China is the state of its environment. According to Melanie (420), China's environmental crisis is so bad that "environmental pollution and degradation have increased at a rate that outpaces the capacity of the Chinese state to protect the environment." The current situation of China's environment is apparently so severe that, for instance, smog caused by the deposition of carbon dioxide from the combustion of coal and fuels by automobiles has been responsible for increased cases of respiratory diseases in the last fifty years ("Sinosphere"). Owing to this pollution, the current trend of unchecked environmental pollution in China may render most urban environments uninhabitable. Diseases associated with high levels of poisonous greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from China's industries also pose the threat of affecting health and hence the capacity of Chinese workers to perform optimally. The fact that pollution could lead to dementia among older women (Wong, Edward) proves how dangerous air pollution is to workers. Such may significantly diminish the competitiveness of the Chinses human resources in the global labor market with potentially adverse effects on the republic's economic output. In the longer term, China may hence lose its economic power to other competing global economic forces.
Lastly, China faces significant administrative challenges in the form of the Tibetan territory which it forcefully annexed and administrated as one of its provinces. Since its annexation, the region has been plagued by minority unrests which threaten the internal stability of China (Melanie 441). Arguably, the danger Tibet poses for the Chinese government is best captured in Tibet: Cry of the Snow Lion, a documentary that captures the challenges of administering minority groups seeking cessation from mainland China. As evidenced by China's need to position military forces in Tibet (Kehr, Dave), the region threatens the stability of China and could lead to an internal collapse.
Ultimately, China faces an inevitable collapse due to its failure to address troubling domestic issues effectively. Its reluctance to adopt other systems of governance other than the authoritarian approach coupled with the caste Hukou system could create internal civil strife. The situation in Tibet only further complicates matters. An increasing number of rebellious educated middle-class citizens further threatens the government's grip on Chinese society. Its economic model of generating income through exportation has been stretched to the limit and offers little opportunity for further growth. Unless these issues are addressed, China's stability could be diminished leading to its fall.




Works cited
"Sinosphere." Nytimes.Com, 2017, http://www.nytimes.com/column/sinosphere.
"The Coming Collapse: Authoritarians In China And Russia Face An Endgame." World Affairs Journal, 2017, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/coming-collapse-authoritarians-china-and-russia-face-endgame
Afridi, Farzana, Sherry Xin Li, and Yufei Ren. "Social identity and inequality: The impact of China's hukou system." Journal of Public Economics 123 (2015): 17-29.
Cai, Fang, and Yang Lu. "Population change and resulting slowdown in potential GDP growth in China." China & World Economy 21.2 (2013): 1-14.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/10/business/in-a-changing-china-new-matchmaking-markets.html.
Kehr, Dave. "FILM IN REVIEW; 'Tibet: Cry Of The Snow Lion'." Nytimes.Com, 2017, http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/19/movies/film-in-review-tibet-cry-of-the-snow-lion.html.
King, Gary, Jennifer Pan, and Margaret E. Roberts. "How censorship in China allows government criticism but silences collective expression." American Political Science Review 107.02 (2013): 326-343.
Larmer, Brook. "In A Changing China, New Matchmaking Markets." Nytimes.Com, 2017,
Manion, Melanie. "Politics in China." Comparative Politics Today: A World View, 8/E (2003): 419.
Scott, A. "Lixin Fan Records Factory Workers' Family In China." Nytimes.Com, 2017,
Wong, Edward. "Pollution Leads To Greater Risk Of Dementia Among Older Women, Study Says." Nytimes.Com, 2017, http://Pollution Leads to Greater Risk of Dementia Among Older Women, Study Says.

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