Analysing data

The website's population statistics


The website's population statistics cover the period from 1980 to 2015. This dataset contains the actual historical data that was analyzed. All of the data for 2016 and 2017 have been predicted. Using historical data from the previous 10 years, from 2006 to 2015, was a wise choice for our investigation. The first and last data points are the two most significant data points. A more precise estimate can only be made if the two points are related to actual data. Actual historical data are relevant to the data point from 2006. The information that is currently available for 2016 is simply a projection, therefore cannot be used as a data point. Therefore the data trend is best left at the 2015 data point.

The seven continent system


In the data selection, the seven continent system has been used. The continent Antarctica in the seven continent system has no permanent inhabitants. It mostly has research scientists due to its remote outpost. In that sense, only data on six continents have been used in the data series. Therefore the data analysis is plotted for six continents for the ten years from 2006 to 2015. In the continent selection, the term Oceania has been used to refer to the continent Austria. The continent comprises of Fiji, Australia, and New Zealand. In the Americas continent, the division is made between North America and Latin America. North America is comprised of Canada and the United States of America. Cuba and Mexico that are normally in North America have in this case been designated in the Latin America continents. This phenomenon is largely due to demographic reasons rather than geographic reasons.

Oceania


Oceania has the least population of all the continents. It has the least number of countries. The Area chart plotted has the time axis moving from left to right. The area chart has indicated an increasing population for Oceania. The data reveals that the population seems to be on a slow but steady increase. Being the smallest continent, Oceania is also seen to have the least number of people as indicated by the chart. Compared to other continent chart areas, Oceania has the least percentage of the area it occupies. According to the chart, however, Oceania seems to have the second largest growth rate among the continents. Its population growth rate is only second to that of Africa.

North America


North America has the second smallest population according to the Area chart. Despite covering a larger land mass, its population seems to be relatively small. Since it is at the bottom of the chart, it is an indication that has the lowest growth rate. The chart has been arranged in such a way that the steeper data series is at the top while the less steep series is at the bottom. Given that the steepness of the gradient of the slopes is representatives of the growth rates, the data series have been arranged about the rate of population increase. North America is at the bottom with the least gradient, and therefore it has the least population growth rate. Given the steepness of its slope, the continent can be said to have had very low or no growth in the past decade. In essence, the Northern American continent has the second lowest population as well as the lowest growth rate. Being a leader in the developed nations indicates that advanced economizes should have low population growth rates.

Europe


The chart shows that Europe has the third lowest population of the continents. Its population rate is also the second lowest. Europe is clearly among the developed nations regarding its growth rates. Its growth is however relatively higher than the Northern hemisphere due to the other less developed nations in the block. According to the raw data, the more developed economies like Germany have very low individual growth rates. However, the Scandinavian nations tend to have higher growth rates. The average growth rate in this region has therefore been influenced by the lesser developed nations in the continent.

Latin America


Latin American nations have the third largest population size in the chart. Their chart size is only surpassed by Africa and Asia. The problem that however emerges is that it has the second lowest growth rate. This growth is relatively strange since not all nations in this region can be considered developed. This patter inherently indicates that the growth rate in this region is largely influenced by culture instead of economic performance. The growth in this area though seemingly constant is higher than that of the North American continent. The Latin American population comprises of some states from the North American hemisphere, and they are mostly related from their cultural similarities. The North American continent seems to have a low population due to economic reasons while the Latin American community has a lower population growth rate due to cultural aspect. Essentially the data indicates that culture and economic influences tend to affect the growth rate of a continent.

Africa


Africa is the second largest concerning population size. It also happens to have the highest population growth rate. Its population seems to have been on a steep rise over the past decade. The trend seems to have increased over time. Given its lesser size at the beginning, Africa's population has had a considerable gain. Africa has a high number of developing countries and has high levels of poverty. Its rate of growth is an indication that it will become a target of marketing for developing countries in product marketing. Its rate is quite high, but it is impossible for it to overtake the largest continent in population size in the next decade. However, from the graphs pattern, its growth rate is more likely to grow over the next decade.

Asia


The continent with the largest population is that of Asia. The population in the continent is the larger than that of other continents combined. In essence, the continent has a population that is greater than half of the world's total population. The chart indicates that Asia not only possesses the bulk of the world's population but also has the third largest population growth rate. Its growth rate is only lower than that of Oceania and Africa. Given the size of its population, its rate is likely to decline over time. Though its initial and final data points might seem well dispersed, its gradient is not sufficient to assure a continued growth trajectory in a populous of that immense size.

The general demographic pattern


The general demographic pattern indicates an increase in population for the world. It is however clear that the developing world seems to have the upper hand in growth rates. Most of the developed continents seem to have a lagged or slow growth rates. The less developed continents like Africa show very high growth trajectories. The most developed continent of North America shows little to almost no growth in the past decades. However, some exceptions do exist since more developed continents like Europe exhibit higher growth rates than the less developed regions of Latin America. Oceania also depicts a higher growth rate than other lesser developed regions. These anomalies can be allocated to the cultural influences in population growth aside from the economic influences.

Forecast


From the observed trend, the population of North America is likely to remain constant or decline in the next decade. Its low growth rate is likely to lead to a stagnation in growth. The Latin American Population and Europe are likely to have slight increases in their populations in the next decade given their very shallow gradients. The population for Asia will show a slower increase in the next decade but will remain as the largest portion of the world's population. The populations of Africa and Oceania are likely to increase significantly in the next decade. They are likely to have increases of over 30% in size in the next decade given their high gradients.

Trend Analysis


To establish the trend using excel, a line chart that has data sets was formed. The establishment of a trend line was simple. In the design tab of the excel worksheet, an option of "Add Chart Element" appears once the line chart has been constructed. The line chart the offers several add-in options including that of a trend line once selected. The trend line option is then selected, and several options appear for the use of different types of data. The data that was available seems to have an established pattern in its data points, and thus the best option was a linear trend line. A trend line is established for individual datasets such as that of a North America. After creating the North America trend line, the "More trend line options" is selected to define the trend requirements. The trends used were the forward option for a ten-year period and a choice to display the equation on the chart. This analysis was then done for all the data sets representing each continent. (USDA ERS, 2017)

From the initial forecasted data, Oceania was predicted to have a high growth rate. However, the excel forecast shows that the continent will have stagnant growth in the next decade. As earlier predicted Europe and North America still have slow and stagnated growth in the next decade. Contrary to the earlier prediction, Latin America has shown a higher growth rate. The growth rates for Asia and Africa were accurately predicted. The two continents exhibit a high growth in the excel forecast as it was anticipated in the earlier prediction.

Recommendation


The Excel software provides several options that are useful in analyzing the data. Other types of charts such as the pie chart and the bar chart could be used to identify the proportional distribution of the population data. Further data analysis tools such as regression, A-nova tests, correlation, covariance, sampling, and regression are useful in forecasting the data, establishing the accuracy of predictions and predicting the variability of the predictions.


Reference

USDA ERS. (2017, October 3). International Macroeconomic Data Set. Retrieved from United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-macroeconomic-data-set/international-macroeconomic-data-set/#Baseline%20Data%20Files

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